Market Quick Take – 13 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US records; Europe/Asia follow; trade truce lifts sentiment
• Volatility: VIX at 14.73; calm near term; SPX ±22 points expected
• Digital assets: ETH near highs; strong ETHA inflows; IBIT positive; altcoins firm
• Fixed Income: US short yields lower after CPI, Long European yields hit new highs
• Currencies: US dollar weaker after the CPI data.
• Commodities: Crude, gold steady; US supply/demand report sinks corn, lifts soybeans
• Macro events: Various Fed speakers

Macro headlines

• Underlying US inflation quickened in July, with the core consumer price index rising 0.3% from June (3.1% yoy vs 3% est), driven by higher services prices such as airfares, medical care, and recreation. Tariff-exposed goods costs rose less than anticipated, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy items, marked its strongest increase since the year's start, matching economists' predictions alongside the overall monthly CPI, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
• After the publishing of the US inflation figures, US President Trump complained again of Fed Chair Powell’s lack of action and said he was considering a lawsuit against Powell for cost overruns related to the renovation of the Fed’s HQ.
• Trump’s choice to head the BLS, EJ Antoni, said it should stop reporting inaccurate monthly jobs numbers, waiting for the more accurate quarterly numbers instead until a better method of collecting data can be devised as bad data has far reaching consequences.
• US tariff revenue hit a new monthly record in July, yet it couldn't thwart a growing budget deficit, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges for the federal government. Customs duties soared to $28 billion, a 273% increase over July last year, according to a Treasury Department release on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the budget deficit reached $291 billion, a 10% rise from the same month last year, considering calendar adjustments.
• Japan's producer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year in July 2025, slightly above forecasts and marking the lowest inflation since August 2024. Several sectors, including transport equipment and food, saw cost moderation, while prices for chemicals and steel continued to fall.
• Trump may consider expanding the revenue share agreement on China chip sales to companies beyond Nvidia and AMD, while China encourages firms not to use Nvidia and AMD chips.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the Federal Reserve ought to be open to a bigger, 50 basis-point cut in the benchmark interest rate next month. Bessent said he was “hopeful” that Trump’s pick for the currently open position on the Fed board, Stephen Miran, will be in place in time for the Sept. 16-17 policy meeting.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0800 – IEA's Monthly Oil Market Report
1100 – US MBA Mortgage Applications
1430 – EIA's Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report

Fed speakers: Barkin (1200), Goolsbee (1700), Bostic (1730)

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Cisco Systems, E.on
• Thursday: Applied Materials, Deere & Company, Hon Hai Precision, Nu Holdings, Adyen, Swiss Re, Ross Stores

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US stocks pushed higher on Tuesday after July’s CPI report came in just below expectations, lifting hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit fresh record highs, up 1.13% and 1.39% respectively, while the Dow added over 480 points. Tech and rate-sensitive sectors led the rally, with Intel up 5.3% after praise from President Trump, and Meta gaining nearly 3%. Easing trade tensions, following a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for Chinese goods, added to the positive mood. Investors are now looking ahead to US PPI data and retail sales later this week.
• Europe: European markets followed Wall Street’s strong lead, with the STOXX 600 closing slightly higher. France’s CAC 40 outperformed on strength in industrials such as Airbus and Stellantis, while Germany’s DAX lagged after ZEW sentiment dropped sharply. The 90-day US–China tariff truce helped risk appetite, but geopolitical uncertainty remains ahead of Friday’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin.
• UK: London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.20%, supported by miners and industrials, while banks with exposure to China also advanced. Stronger global sentiment outweighed slightly weaker UK labor data, which showed gradual cooling in the job market but no urgent need for the Bank of England to act. Spirax led the index with a 13% jump on upbeat earnings guidance.
• Asia: Asian markets gained across the board. Japan’s Nikkei reached another record high, driven by chip-related exporters. Hong Kong and mainland China rallied on optimism over the extended tariff truce, while South Korea’s KOSPI rose on tech sector strength. Australia was the regional outlier, slipping after a major bank’s earnings disappointed investors. Overall, sentiment remained firmly risk-on.

Volatility

• Market volatility eased further, with the VIX closing at 14.73, its lowest since late December, as traders welcomed the calm CPI print. Near-term expectations are muted, but the upward slope in the futures curve signals some caution for later in the quarter. For investors, this backdrop often supports staying invested while maintaining measured hedges. Options markets are pricing an expected S&P 500 move today of about ±22 points (~0.34%).

Digital Assets

• Bitcoin traded near $119,000, holding steady, while Ether hovered around $4,640, close to its record high. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw another strong day of inflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA leading at over $318 million, following Monday’s record $1.02 billion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded gains, with IBIT attracting over $110 million. Altcoins were broadly higher, with Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin all advancing alongside Ether’s strength. Traders are watching whether this post-CPI momentum continues into Thursday’s US PPI release.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields dipped on the US July CPI report as the headline inflation failed to show the tariff impact that was feared, with the benchmark 2-year Treasury yield falling three basis points to 3.73% after a larger drop after the publishing of the figures. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield, on the other hand, ended the day almost unchanged after gyrating after the figures.
• European yields rush higher yesterday, with the benchmark German 10-year bund rising to close at 2.74%, near the very top of the range since March. The 30-year benchmark rose to a new high for the cycle and since 2011, hitting 3.30%.

Commodities

• Crude holds near a one-month low, with a thin summer market being noted by traders, leaving prices exposed to any major market-moving news. For now, the focus is squarely on Friday’s meeting in Alaska between Trump and Putin and whether it may lead to an easing of sanctions. The EIA raised this year’s global oversupply, while OPEC struck a more bullish tone. The IEA will release its estimates later today.
• Soybeans rose, while corn slumped after the USDA, in their monthly supply and demand report, projected a record corn harvest, leaving stocks this time next year 11% higher than expected. Soybeans, meanwhile, rose due to a smaller-than-expected harvest and tighter supplies, while wheat fell amid ample global supplies.
• Gold holds steady mid-range around USD 3,350, supported by yesterday’s in-line CPI print and a softening labour market underpinning hopes for a September rate cut, and gold-backed holdings in ETFs rising to a fresh two-year high.

Currencies

• The US dollar weakened after the US July CPI figures yesterday, as the in-line headline figure was seen as bringing relief on the impact of tariffs for now, sending short US yields lower. EURUSD rose back toward the high of the recent range, trading 1.1678 after a 1.1599 low yesterday and AUDUSD trades 0.6531 this morning after a low of 0.6482 yesterday.
• With strong risk sentiment yesterday and no response in yields at the longer end of the US yield curve to US economic data, the Japanese yen remains weak, only edging very slightly stronger versus the strong US dollar and trading lower elsewhere, especially versus the strong euro, with EURJPY touching 173.00 overnight before edging back.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.