Market Quick Take – 5 December 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Equities edge higher overall, with Wall Street flat near records, Europe led by autos and banks, and Asia modestly firmer
• Volatility: VIX around mid-teens, short-dated vols subdued
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady above USD 92k after sharp rebound
• Fixed Income: Japan’s yields rise at front-end of curve, but fall again for longest 30-year and 40-year JGB’s
• Currencies: JPY the chief focus as it firms again on BoJ rate hike talk
• Commodities: Gold and especially silver rebound, with silver already poised just below record highs again.
• Macro events: US Sep. PCE Inflation, US Dec. preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment

Macro headlines

• Germany’s ruling coalition faces a key vote in the German Bundestag today on a pension bill that could topple the government and trigger new elections if it fails, as some members of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s own CD have vowed to vote against the bill, while the far left will fail to
• US unemployment benefit applications fell to the lowest in more than three years, with initial claims down 27,000 to 191,000 in the week ended 29 Nov, below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey, as a low‑hire, low‑fire labour market keeps claims subdued but limits job‑finding for the unemployed.
• Japan's October 2025 household spending fell 2.9% YoY, missing expectations and marking its first decline since April amid persistent cost pressures. Monthly spending dropped 3.5%, against forecasts for a 0.7% increase.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1330 – Canada Nov. Employment Data
1330 – US Sep. PCE Inflation
1500 – US Dec. Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings next week

• Tue: Autozone
• Wed: Oracle, Adobe, Synopsis
• Thu: Broadcom, Costco, Lululemon

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: U.S. equities were little changed, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%, the Nasdaq 0.2% and the Dow down 0.1% as traders waited for next week’s Fed decision. Mixed labour data, including a 32,000 drop in ADP private payrolls, 71,321 announced layoffs and initial claims down to 191,000, kept a 25-basis-point cut largely priced. Treasury yields near 4.1% pressured mega-cap tech as Intel slid 7.5%, Amazon 1.4%, Apple 1.2% and Alphabet 0.7%, while Meta jumped 3.4% on spending-cut reports and Salesforce and Dollar General rallied 3.7% and 14% on strong earnings. Focus now shifts to today’s core PCE inflation data for confirmation before the Fed updates its guidance next week.
• Europe: European equities moved higher, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both up 0.5% as investors leaned into banks and autos on U.S. rate-cut hopes. Autos outperformed after fresh upgrades, with Stellantis climbing 3.6% following a UBS upgrade and Mercedes Benz, BMW and Volkswagen each gaining more than 3%, while Inditex advanced 2.6%. Banks such as Santander, BNP Paribas and BBVA rose around 2%, but pharmaceuticals dragged, with Sanofi down 1.3% and Bayer 2.6%. With European indices near recent highs, markets now look to the Fed meeting and incoming eurozone data to judge how long the pro-cyclical rotation into autos and financials can run.
• Asia: Asian markets were mixed but slightly positive, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.7%, or 175 points, to 25,936 as firmer U.S. futures and expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed cut steadied risk appetite. Mainland China’s CSI 300 added about 0.8%, helped by gains in financials, while Hong Kong names including CMOC, Innoscience, Xiaomi, SMIC and Meituan recovered part of Wednesday’s losses. Property sentiment stayed fragile even as Country Garden secured shareholder approval to issue around 13 billion dollars in mandatory convertible bonds as part of its offshore restructuring plan. Asia now takes its cue from U.S. PCE data and the Fed outcome to see whether the recent tech-led rebound can broaden.

Volatility

• Equity volatility remains calm. The VIX slipped to around 15.8 yesterday, with short-dated measures like VIX1D and VIX9D also subdued, signalling that markets see recent equity swings as manageable rather than the start of a new shock. Today’s focus is the U.S. PCE inflation report and next week’s Fed meeting, where investors still expect an initial rate cut, even after mixed labour data.
• For today’s zero-day SPX options, pricing points to an intraday move of roughly ±31 points from the 6,857 level, or about ±0.45%. The intraday chain shows puts trading at a modest volatility premium to calls, especially further out of the money, which points to persistent but not panicky demand for downside protection.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are steady after a choppy week. Bitcoin trades just above USD 92,000, holding most of its sharp mid-week rebound from the low-80,000 area as traders balance Fed cut hopes with the risk of another macro-driven shake-out. Ethereum outperforms, trading near USD 3,200, while major altcoins such as Solana and XRP are broadly firmer to sideways.
• ETF flows underline the rotation: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw about USD 195 million of net outflows yesterday, led by sizable redemptions from IBIT, while recent days have brought stronger relative interest in ether products, with ETHA among the main beneficiaries. At the same time, fresh regulatory steps in the U.S. and Europe and Bank of America’s plan to allow limited crypto ETP allocations for wealth clients keep the longer-term adoption story intact.

Fixed Income

• Japanese government bonds under pressure once again in Tokyo on Friday, if with the odd twist that , 30-year and 40-year JGB benchmark yields fell back slightly for a second day, at the front-end of the curve, the 2-year JGB benchmark yield rose to a new cycle high, up more than 2 basis points to 1.05%, while the 10-year JGB benchmark yield also rose slightly to a new post-GFC high of 1.95%. Bloomberg News reported unnamed sources indicating both that the BoJ is set to hike at the December 19 meeting and that government officials would not push back against the move.
• US treasuries came under modest pressure yesterday, but remain within recent tight ranges, with the two-year treasury benchmark up a couple of basis points to 3.52%, while the 10-year benchmark yield likewise rose two basis points to 4.10%.

Commodities

• Silver saw a huge snap-back from the sell-off low yesterday of 56.50, with the rally in the Friday session in Asia taking the price back to 58.30 and eyeing the recent top just below 59.00.
• Gold pulled back from a sell-off that didn’t stick and remains within the recent range, rallying back to the 4,227 area, with eyes on the local range high just below 4,250.
• The price for the prompt US natural gas future rose a bit further above the big 5 dollar per MMBTU mark, posting a new high since 2022 as very cold weather is forecast for the US for the coming week. Crude oil is quiet within the recent range.

Currencies

• The dollar was neutral to slightly soft yesterday, as EURUSD eased back after posting new highs and breaking above the 1.1650+ area, trading near that area in late Asian trading on Friday, while USDJPY was under more pressure due to JPY strength on talk of a BoJ rate hike at its December 19 meeting.
• AUDUSD is trying to close the week on a strong note as it pulled above the key 0.6600 level yesterday and is so far maintaining altitude, trading 0.6620.

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