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The AI train keeps chugging. Challenging the bearish case.
Podcast 19 minutes to read
Summary: Today, we note that US stocks have closed last week's gap in the major indices. Do bears re-engage or get trampled by the bulls? We round up the blowout Palantir earnings, look at the next key AI names to report today and discuss some great links, including one that is supports the idea that bearish concerns are misplaced in an era of fiscal dominance, in a policy mix possibly unlike anything we have seen since at least the 1940's and structurally, unlike anything we have seen ever. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today’s links
My FX Update from yesterday - talking decisive USDJPY turn around latest FX trend status and more.
Brett Adcock on X with a roundup of recent developments in AI. You have to follow people like this to get a sense of how quickly things are developing in the space. The Physical AI stuff is going to get increasingly mind-blowing/creepy in the next few years, but also the one on Amazon-backed Fable - completely disrupting the nature of content itself! Let me know how you keep abreast of the AI cutting edge (also visionaries) in the comments.
Odd Lots podcast discussing why the BLS revisions (of US payrolls) have turned consistently negative and the politicization of US government statistics. Will this change when/if the tariff disruptions smooth out over time - will they smooth out?
Can’t help but continue to tout the Hidden Forces podcast, especially this episode with guest Vincent Deluard (half of episode behind a paywall), who makes the case for why equities can just keep on keeping on as we are in an “Age of Permanent Stimulus”. A must listen for balancing out bearish proclivities (like our own of late).
Finally, an excellent WSJ piece (paywall - but Saxo clients can find on platform), discussing The AI Boom’s Hidden Risk to the Economy - does this balance out some of Deluard’s balancing out?
Today’s chart: Gold
The consolidation in the gold rally has been remarkably shallow relative to the enormous scale of the rally that took out the 2075/ounce level “for good” early last year. What would be the catalyst for an extension higher - a weaker US dollar, a more explicit move into forcing rates to inappropriately low levels relative to inflation, a re-escalation of the US-China trade war? Local trend line breaks were false signals both higher and lower recently (the pink trend-lines), forcing a wider angle to the key flat-line support a 3,250 and resistance at 3,450 for next steps. Stay tuned!
Questions and comments, please!
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