Outrageous Predictions
Die Grüne Revolution der Schweiz: 30 Milliarden Franken-Initiative bis 2050
Katrin Wagner
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Investment and Options Strategist
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
Earnings trading often starts with a simple question: will the stock go up or down?
In practice, that question is incomplete. Earnings introduce uncertainty, and that uncertainty is reflected not just in price moves, but in how risk plays out. The same directional view can lead to very different outcomes depending on how the position is structured.
This is where defined-risk option strategies come in. They do not aim to predict better. They aim to shape outcomes more deliberately.
Owning shares creates an open-ended payoff. If the stock rises, gains continue. If it falls, losses continue. The exposure is linear and fully tied to price movement.
Options change that structure. A spread combines buying one option and selling another at a different strike. This simple adjustment transforms the payoff.
Instead of open-ended outcomes, the trade now has boundaries:
This is the core idea. Options are not just about leverage. They are about designing risk.
Mini-summary: spreads turn uncertainty into something measurable.
Consider a stock trading at 100 ahead of earnings.
Instead of buying shares, a trader expresses a bullish view using a bull call spread. This involves buying a call at 100 and selling another at 110.
Suppose the trade costs 3 in total.
Three outcomes illustrate the structure:
What matters is not the exact payoff. It is that both risk and reward were defined before the event.
Mini-summary: the structure determines the outcome, not just the direction.
Defined-risk structures often require less capital than owning shares outright. That changes how exposure is deployed.
Less capital is tied up, and the worst-case scenario is clear from the start. In return, part of the upside is given away.
This trade-off is intentional. It exchanges open-ended potential for control and efficiency.
Mini-summary: capital efficiency improves, but at the cost of full participation.
Around earnings, pricing does not only reflect direction. It also reflects uncertainty.
Spreads interact with this dynamic differently than single options. Because one leg is bought and another is sold, part of the repricing effect is naturally offset.
The result is typically a more stable outcome compared to holding a standalone option through the event.
Mini-summary: spreads tend to smooth the impact of event-driven repricing.
Earnings trading does not exist in a single moment. It unfolds across time.
In the immediate window around the announcement, uncertainty is highest and outcomes are binary. In the weeks after, the market digests new information. Further out, price tends to drift based on broader narratives.
These phases can be framed as three horizons:
Each horizon naturally aligns with different option structures, because the risks being expressed are different.
Mini-summary: timing is part of the trade, not just direction.
A directional view alone is incomplete. It needs to be paired with how risk is managed.
A bullish view with defined risk can be expressed through a call spread. A bearish view through a put spread. A neutral view, where the expected move may be overstated, aligns with structures such as an iron condor.
When the focus shifts from direction to timing or volatility across expiries, structures like calendars or diagonals become relevant.
The key is alignment. The structure reflects both the view and the tolerance for risk.
Mini-summary: structure is the translation of the thesis into risk.
This framework suggests a shift in perspective.
Earnings trading is not only about being right on direction. It is about how that view is expressed through a structure.
Defined-risk approaches prioritise clarity. Outcomes are bounded, capital usage is controlled, and the role of uncertainty is acknowledged upfront.
This does not remove risk. It makes it explicit.
Option pricing combines direction and uncertainty.
Standalone options are fully exposed to both. Spreads, by construction, offset part of that exposure internally. This is why their behaviour around events tends to be more stable.
This is not an advantage in all cases. It is a design choice.
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