Outrageous Predictions
Die Grüne Revolution der Schweiz: 30 Milliarden Franken-Initiative bis 2050
Katrin Wagner
Head of Investment Content Switzerland
Investment and Options Strategist
Important note: The strategies and examples provided in this article are purely for educational purposes. They are intended to assist in shaping your thought process and should not be replicated or implemented without careful consideration. Every investor or trader must conduct their own due diligence and take into account their unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives before making any decisions. Remember, investing in the stock market carries risk, and it's crucial to make informed decisions.
Many traders encounter IV crush in a familiar way.
A call option is bought ahead of earnings. The company reports solid numbers. The stock rises. Yet the option does not perform as expected.
At first glance, this feels inconsistent. The direction was correct, but the outcome was disappointing.
The missing piece is that the position was exposed to more than just direction.
When trading shares, the relationship is straightforward. Price goes up, the position gains. Price goes down, it loses.
Options introduce an additional layer. Part of the option price reflects how uncertain the market expects the future to be before expiry. This is referred to as implied volatility.
Ahead of scheduled events such as earnings or central bank decisions, this uncertainty is often elevated. After the event, once the unknown becomes known, that uncertainty is reduced.
This reduction in uncertainty pricing is what traders refer to as IV crush.
Mini-summary: options price both direction and uncertainty, and both can change.
Consider a stock trading at 100 ahead of earnings.
A trader buys a short-dated call option for 5, expecting a positive move.
After earnings, the stock rises to 105.
However, the option is now worth only 4.
This outcome can feel counterintuitive. The direction was correct, yet the position lost value.
What changed is not only the stock price, but the pricing of uncertainty. Part of the option’s value was tied to the anticipation of the event. Once the event passed, that component was reduced.
Mini-summary: being right on direction is not always sufficient for option PnL.
Different option structures carry different exposure to uncertainty.
A standalone call option is fully exposed to both direction and changes in uncertainty.
A spread, by contrast, combines a long and a short option. This means that part of the change in uncertainty is offset within the structure itself.
The result is a more balanced exposure. The trade becomes less sensitive to changes in uncertainty and more focused on direction within defined limits.
Mini-summary: structure determines how much uncertainty exposure is carried.
Before an event, uncertainty is often priced at a higher level because outcomes are unknown.
After the event, once new information is released, that uncertainty is reduced. Option prices adjust accordingly.
This pattern is common, but not guaranteed. If new uncertainty is introduced, pricing may remain elevated.
Mini-summary: IV crush is typical, but not automatic.
The impact of IV crush depends on context.
It tends to matter most when:
It matters less when trading the underlying directly, or when using longer-dated options where a single event represents a smaller portion of total uncertainty.
Mini-summary: the shorter the timeframe and the closer the event, the greater the impact.
This leads to a broader perspective.
Options are not simply a leveraged way to express direction. They are a way to express a view on both direction and uncertainty.
Understanding IV crush helps explain why outcomes can differ from expectations, and why structure plays a key role in shaping those outcomes.
It shifts the focus from prediction to understanding how positions behave under different conditions.
Option pricing reflects multiple components, including direction and the market’s expectations of variability.
Standalone options are directly exposed to both. Spreads partially offset these components, which can lead to more stable behaviour around events.
This is not inherently better or worse. It is a different exposure profile.
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