Market Quick Take – 9 January 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Rotation hits US tech while defence and energy rally, Europe cools after records, Asia slips on China deflation worries.
• Volatility: Payrolls risk, event-driven hedging, calm surface, latent risk
• Digital assets: Bitcoin steady, ethereum softer, solana/xrp firmer, ibit resilient, etha lagging
• Currencies: JPY trades broadly weaker as the US dollar firms broadly ahead of US December jobs report.
• Commodities: Gold and crude gain on Iran tensions; broad gains steer the BCOM index to strong first week of trading.
• Fixed income: Yields rebounded in Japan and the US ahead of US December jobs report Friday.
• Macro: US jobs report & Uni of Michigan Sentiment

Macro headlines

• Trump is set to decide on a successor to Fed Chair Powell this month, according to Bessent, possibly around the Davos forum which begins on 19 January. The president told the NYT that he has made up his mind.
• Trump is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, a move he cast as his latest effort to bring down housing costs ahead of the November midterm election. One estimate showed the exercise could bring down mortgage rates by around 0.25% relative to US Treasuries.
• Protests in Iran escalated overnight amid an internet blackout, as thousands took to the streets across the country. The unrest potentially represents the most serious challenge in decades to the Ayatollah-led theocratic regime. Any collapse of the current government would carry significant geopolitical and energy-market implications.
• In December 2025, US one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, while three- and five-year expectations remained at 3.0%. Inflation uncertainty increased, with price forecasts for gas, food, medical care, college, and rent declining. Labor market sentiment softened, showing a series low in job-finding, though income and spending expectations stayed stable.
• China is reportedly set to approve some NVIDIA H200 purchases this quarter, per Bloomberg sources. While the H200 is barred from state bodies and critical infrastructure, Beijing will permit its commercial use.
• The US trade deficit fell in October 2025 to $29.4 billion from September's $48.1 billion, beating the forecast of $58.1 billion. Tariffs altered trade flows, with imports down 3.2% to $331.4 billion driven by a notably drop pharmaceuticals and exports up 2.6% to $302 billion supported by a large increase in non-monetary gold exports.
• For the week ending January 3rd, US initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 208,000, close to the 210,000 forecast and below last year's average. Continuing claims increased by 56,000 to 1,914,000, exceeding expectations of 1,900,000, indicating slow hiring and steady firing.
• In Q3 2025, US nonfarm productivity rose 4.9%, beating the 3% forecast and up from 4.1% in Q2. Output increased 5.4% with hours worked rising 0.5%. Manufacturing productivity grew 3.3%, with output up 2.6% and hours down 0.7%. Year-over-year, productivity rose 1.9%, below the previous 3.3% increase.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1000 – Eurozone Nov. Retail Sales
1330 – US Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
1330 – US Oct. Housing Starts and Building Permits
1330 – Canada Dec. Employment Data
1500 – US Jan University of Michigan Sentiment

Earnings events

• Monday: Delta Airlines
• Tuesday: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup
• Wednesday: Bank of America, Wells Fargo
• Thursday: TSMC, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock
• Friday: Reliance Industries

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The Dow rose 0.6% to 49,266.1 and the S&P 500 was flat at 6,921.5, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.6% to 25,507.1. Investors rotate out of big AI hardware and into cyclicals as they weigh the Fed path and a bigger defence-spending story. Nvidia fell 2.2% and Broadcom slid 3.2% as the AI trade cooled, while Exxon Mobil climbed 3.7% on a crude rebound and Lockheed Martin gained 4.3% after talk of a much larger 2027 military budget. Friday’s jobs report and any Fed hints decide whether this rotation is a one-day wobble or a new habit.
• Europe: Europe turns lower, with the STOXX 600 down 0.2% to 603.8 and the Euro STOXX 50 off 0.3% to 5,904.3. After record highs earlier in the week, investors cool off as they digest rate-cut timing and fresh geopolitics, while tech stays heavy. Mining stocks drew attention as reports emerged that Rio Tinto is in talks to buy Glencore, potentially creating a $200 billion global mining giant and the biggest deal in industry history, rivalling BHP in scale and copper dominance. BAE Systems rose 5.0% on renewed defence-spending talk, but Shell fell 3.5% after trimming fourth-quarter LNG output guidance and warning on chemicals, and Associated British Foods dropped 14.0% after a profit warning.
• Asia: Hong Kong leads losses, with the Hang Seng down 1.2% to 26,149.5 and the Hang Seng Tech down 1.1% to 5,678.2. Mainland China is steadier, as Shanghai slips 0.1% to 4,082.3 and Shenzhen falls 0.5% to 13,959.5 while traders wait for December inflation data, the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI). Meituan fell 3.4%, Baidu dropped 3.3% and Alibaba lost 2.3% as sentiment sours on AI demand and fresh talk of limits on Nvidia H200 orders, while Longfor gained 1.2% after the central bank signalled more easing. Next up: the inflation prints and any policy hints that turn wait-and-see into buy-the-dip.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains contained, but today is one of those sessions where calm can change quickly. The focus is squarely on the US nonfarm payrolls report, which has the potential to shift expectations around interest rates and growth in a single move. Into yesterday’s close, overall volatility stayed moderate, yet short-dated measures were clearly elevated relative to the 9-day view, signalling that investors are hedging specifically around today’s data rather than preparing for a broader market shock. Beyond the data, energy and geopolitics remain a background risk, as developments around Venezuela keep the inflation narrative alive even while equities look stable.
• Based on current options pricing, the S&P 500 is implying a move of roughly ±42 points (±0.6%) into today’s weekly expiry.
• Looking at today’s expiration, there is no strong downside skew near the money: put and call pricing is fairly balanced around spot, suggesting caution rather than fear.

Digital assets

• Digital assets are trading in a narrow range ahead of the US jobs data, reflecting a broader “wait and see” mood across risk assets. Bitcoin is holding close to $91,000, while ethereum is slightly softer near $3,100. Among major altcoins, performance is mixed but constructive, with solana and xrp showing modest gains, suggesting selective risk appetite rather than a full risk-off stance.
• In the US ETF space, IBIT is broadly flat on the day and continues to attract heavy turnover, pointing to sustained institutional engagement with bitcoin exposure. ETHA, by contrast, is weaker, mirroring ethereum’s relative underperformance versus bitcoin. Crypto-linked equities tell a similar story: exchanges and miners are mixed, indicating investors are staying involved, but with tighter risk control ahead of key macro catalysts.

Fixed income

• Japan’s government bonds sold off after the prior day’s rally on weak wage data, with the 2-year benchmark yield rebounding two basis points by late in the Friday session in Tokyo to near 1.15%, while the 10-year benchmark JGB yield was similarly two basis points higher from Thursday’s close at 2.10%.
• US treasury yields rebounded slightly, but remain within the recent tight range ahead of the US jobs report Friday. The 2-year benchmark treasury yield lifted three basis points to trade above 3.49% in the Asian session Friday, while the 10-year benchmark treasury yield rose slightly to trade near 4.175%.

Commodities

• Oil’s January roller-coaster continues, with prices rebounding firmly as focus returns to rising tensions around Iran and President Trump’s threat to support the ongoing uprising against the Ayatollah-led regime. In addition, the annual commodity index rebalancing is set to direct cash flows back into futures markets, while Goldman Sachs notes that investors hold the most bearish view on crude in almost a decade—both factors that could reinforce, albeit temporarily, bullish momentum.
• Gold steadied on the back of heightened geopolitical risk, indirectly lending support to silver, which has been pressured by mechanical selling linked to the annual five-day commodity index rebalancing that began on Thursday. Beyond Iran developments and fresh Trump commentary, traders will also focus on today’s US jobs and sentiment reports.
• The BCOM Total Return Index is up 2.4% in the first week of trading, with all but two of the 24 markets trading higher, led by strong gains across precious and industrial metals and broad advances in agriculture. These gains, including crude and fuel products more than offset a near 10% slump in natural gas. Top performers include platinum (+12%), silver (+9%), Arabica coffee (+7%), aluminum (+4.3%), and gasoline (+3.5%).

Currencies

• The US dollar traded slightly firmer Thursday, with EURUSD posting new local lows since early December below 1.1650 late in the day before finding support. Today’s December US jobs report and Supreme Court announcements on Trump’s tariffs are likely to drive USD direction.
• The Japanese yen weakened broadly, with USDJPY poking above 157.25 and to a new local high just below 157.50, eyeing the 157.89 high from November.

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