Market Quick Take – 06 February 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Tech-led sell-off broadens as markets reassess AI capex returns versus near-term earnings durability.
• Volatility: Short-dated uncertainty elevated, protection demand persists, SPX swings still expected
• Digital assets: Crypto weak with risk assets, IBIT and ETHA outflows weigh, sentiment remains fragile
• Currencies: US dollar mixed after Thursday’s modest rally. Sterling plunges on dovish Bank of England
• Commodities: Silver whipsaws on liquidity stress, gold steadier, oil pinned to U.S.–Iran talks, gas digesting a 360 bcf draw
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields plunge on job cuts data, weak risk sentiment
• Macro events: US University of Michigan Confidence, Canada Jan. Employment Data

Macro headlines

• The ECB held interest rates steady at its first 2026 meeting as expected, with the main rate at 2.15%. It views eurozone inflation stabilizing at 2% amid geopolitical risks. President Lagarde noted the inflation outlook is stable but warned against reacting to individual data points due to increased uncertainty.
• US job openings fell by 386,000 to 6.542 million in December 2025, the lowest since September 2020, below the forecast of 7.2 million. Declines occurred in professional services, retail, and finance across all regions. Hires and separations stayed at 5.3 million, with minimal change in quits and layoffs.
• US Jan. Challenger Job Cuts rose to more than 108,000, a sudden spike that spooked the market. This data series is choppy, with no seasonal smoothing, but it touched off a rally in US treasuries as noted below.
• Japan's household spending fell 2.6% year-on-year in December 2025, below expectations for stable figures, following a 2.9% decline the previous month. Monthly spending dropped 2.9%, missing forecasts of a 1.3% decrease, reversing November's sharp 6.2% rise.
• The Bank of England maintained the Bank Rate at 3.75% in February with a close 5-4 vote, with four dovish dissenters. Governor Bailey hinted at openness to further rate reductions, making for a solid dovish surprise. Inflation is above 2% but expected to decline by April. Economic and labor market weaknesses persist, and further rate cuts may depend on new inflation data.
• US job quits rose to 3.204 million in December 2025, the highest in six months, mainly in retail (+87,000) and information (+28,000), but fell in professional services (-151,000). The quits rate stayed at 2%. Increases were seen in the Midwest (+59,000) and West (+13,000), with declines in the South (-50,000) and Northeast (-11,000).
• US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to 231,000, exceeding expectations. Continuing claims increased by 25,000 to 1,844,000 due to winter storm disruptions. Federal claims fell by 230 to 568 amid shutdown impacts.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – Germany Dec. Industrial Production
0700 – Sweden Jan. CPI
1215 – UK Bank of England’s Huw Pill to speak
1330 – Canada Jan. Employment Data
1500 – US Feb. Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment.

Earnings events

• Today: Toyota, Philip Morris, Tokyo Electron, Kongsberg Gruppen, Orsted
• Next week: Apollo Global Management, Softbank Corp; Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Gilead Sciences, S&P Global, Welltower, BP, Duke Energy, Barclays, Spotify, Marriott, Ferrari, Robinhood, Cloudflare, Ford, Datadog, Kering, Xylem, Fiserv; Cisco, McDonalds, T-Mobile US, TotalEnergies, Shopify, Siemens Energy, EssilorLuxottica, Applovin, CVS Health, Hilton Worldwide, Vertiv Holdings, Motorola, Heineken; Hermes, L’Oreal, Applied Materials, Siemens, Arista Networks, Unilever, Softbank Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, British American Tobacco, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Brookfield, Agnico Eagle Mines, Howmet Aerospace, Airbnb, Vale, Mercedes Benz, Japan Tobacco, KBC Group, American Electric Power, Zoetis, Coinbase; Safran, Enbridge, NatWest, Tokio Marine Holdings, Japan Post Bank, TC Energy, Cameco

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: U.S. equities fell for a third straight session as the sell-off in technology broadened into consumer discretionary and communication services, keeping risk appetite fragile. Investors continued to reassess whether the surge in AI-related capital spending can deliver sufficient near-term returns to justify current valuations. Amazon dropped sharply after outlining materially higher capital expenditure than markets had expected, reigniting concerns around cash flow discipline. Large-cap software names such as Microsoft, Oracle and Palantir also came under pressure as sentiment toward AI monetisation cooled. In semiconductors, Qualcomm led declines after issuing a cautious outlook tied to softer demand.
• Europe: European equities moved lower as central banks maintained a patient stance and earnings drove sharp stock-level dispersion. The ECB held rates and pushed back against expectations for near-term easing, while the BoE also stayed on hold, reinforcing a “higher for longer, but not tightening” policy message. Corporate results weighed on sentiment, with Shell falling after missing profit expectations and BBVA sliding sharply despite a constructive longer-term narrative. Maersk warned of weaker earnings into 2026, and Rheinmetall trimmed guidance. In contrast, BNP Paribas outperformed after raising return targets. Healthcare sentiment also remained sensitive after earlier headlines around a softer 2026 outlook from Novo Nordisk.
• Asia: Asian equities were mostly lower on Friday as global tech weakness and a cautious risk tone spilled into the region, although moves varied by market. Japan closed higher, supported by selective gains in technology names, while South Korea and Australia fell as investors trimmed exposure to growth-sensitive sectors. Hong Kong traded lower into the close, reflecting pressure on tech and internet stocks after the U.S. sell-off and ongoing volatility across crypto-related assets. Overall, the session was characterised by caution rather than panic, with investors remaining highly responsive to developments in U.S. mega-cap technology and global risk sentiment.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains elevated after Thursday’s sharp equity sell-off, with investors reassessing valuation risk and near-term growth expectations, particularly around large-cap technology and AI-related spending. The VIX closed at 21.77, while very short-dated measures stayed higher (VIX1D 22.15, VIX9D 22.29), indicating that uncertainty is concentrated in the coming days rather than further out. This reflects a cautious backdrop marked by policy uncertainty, mixed macro signals, and ongoing questions about whether earnings growth can justify heavy capital expenditure across the tech sector.
• Based on current options pricing, the SPX expected move for this week is about ±74 points (±1.09%), pointing to continued market swings but not a disorderly stress scenario.
• 0DTE skew check (today’s expiry): downside skew remains visible, with near-the-money puts trading richer than comparable calls. This suggests investors are still actively paying for protection against further downside, even as some signs of stabilisation emerge.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets continue to trade in line with broader risk sentiment. Bitcoin is holding near 64,700, Ethereum around 1,900, while major altcoins such as Solana (~79) and XRP (~1.30) remain under pressure. ETF flows underline the cautious tone. The latest published data for 5 february shows net outflows of around $434m from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, led by IBIT (-$175m). On the ether side, overall flows were slightly negative, with ETHA (-$56m) partly offset by inflows into other ether-linked products.
• The combination of lower prices, persistent ETF outflows, and fragile liquidity keeps sentiment defensive. For now, crypto is behaving like a high-beta extension of equity risk rather than a diversifier, with confidence likely hinging on calmer equity markets and a stabilisation in ETF flows.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields plunged yesterday – initially on news of a large job cuts in the Jan. Challenger Job cuts report and then on a plunge in job openings data, spike in weekly jobless claims and widespread unease in risk sentiment in equity markets. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield fell more than twelves basis points at one point to below 3.43% before rebounding closer to 3.46%.
• The benchmark 10-year treasury yield fell almost the same amount before rebounding from a 4.16% low to 4.19%, now back below the key 4.20% area.
• US high yield spreads widened sharply, with the Bloomberg measure of high yield spreads to US treasuries widening eleven basis points to 275 basis points.

Commodities

• Silver remained highly volatile, with sharp early losses followed by a rebound, underscoring how thin liquidity and forced de-risking continue to amplify moves. In China, the UBS SDIC Silver Futures Fund again hit its 10% daily limit down, despite a brief trading halt, while still trading at a large premium to NAV, distorting price discovery. At the same time, the CME has raised margins again for precious metals contracts this year. Until volatility subsides and liquidity improves, silver is likely to keep trading violently in both directions.
• Gold held up better than silver, supported by a defensive bid as risk sentiment stayed fragile. Spot gold traded around USD 4,879/oz, up on the day, even as cross-asset volatility remained elevated. Relative performance continues to favour gold within the precious metals complex, which is proving less vulnerable than silver to sharp liquidity-driven air pockets.
• Oil prices stayed headline-driven, with attention firmly on upcoming U.S.–Iran talks. Brent traded near USD 67.80 and WTI around USD 63.54. While a geopolitical risk premium remains embedded, a calmer diplomatic tone could see that premium unwind quickly.
• Natural gas steadied after recent turbulence as markets absorbed the latest storage data. The EIA reported a 360 bcf weekly withdrawal, a record-size draw but smaller than the -379 bcf consensus forecast, tempering the most bullish expectations. Fundamentals remain tight, but with weather and storage now well flagged, near-term price action is likely to stay reactive rather than directional.

Currencies

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