Market Quick Take – 28 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and Europe edged higher on oil relief, while Asia reversed lower as Gulf risks returned.
• Volatility: PCE inflation, oil rebound, Middle East tensions, VIX subdued
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin below USD 73k, ETF outflows
• Commodities: Crude oil spikes and gold slumps as no end to the Middle East war remains in sight; copper shipped to the US ahead of tariff update
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields higher on crude oil price surge. Japan’s short-dated yields drop.
• Currencies: USD firms again on jump in crude oil prices, treasury yields. EURUSD eyeing recent range lows, USDJPY eyeing 160.00 and intervention risks.
• Macro: US April PCE Inflation, US April New Home Sales, Japan May Tokyo CPI

Macro headlines

• Iran said a return to war was unlikely, while Trump told a televised White House cabinet meeting he was "not satisfied" with negotiations, pushing back against Iranian reports about a draft memorandum of understanding.
• Trump says no nation would control the Straits of Hormuz and have carried out defensive airstrikes on Iranian military site yesterday, as it threatened American forces and commercial traffic using drones.
• Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated she is "prepared to raise rates" if inflation persists, noting that after five years of above-target inflation, she is particularly attuned to the risk that elevated inflation will become embedded in price and wage-setting behavior.
• The UK faces a "lost generation" from youth unemployment, with a government-commissioned review warning that without action, the number of young people not in education, employment or training is due to hit 1.25 million within five years, up from about 1 million currently.
• The US granted Volvo Car an exemption from a China-linked connected-vehicle ban, while European car sales rose for a third month on robust EV and hybrid demand. European firms in China are turning more upbeat even as Airbus deliveries face delays.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

· 1130 – ECB Minutes from April Meeting
· 1230 – US April PCE Inflation
· 1230 – US 1Q GDP revision, Personal Consumption and Personal Spending
· 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
· 1230 – US Apr. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders
· 1300 – South Africa’s Central Bank (SARB) Rate Announcement
· 1400 – US April New Home Sales
· 1430 – EIA Natural Gas Storage Change
· 1600 – US Weekly Crude and Fuel Stock Report (delayed from Wednesday)
· 1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year notes
· 2330 – Japan May Tokyo CPI

Earnings this week

• Wednesday (yesterday): Marvell Technology, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, Agilent Technologies
• Thursday (today): Dell Technologies, Autodesk, NetApp, Dollar Tree, Best Buy, Hormel Foods

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 edged up less than 0.1% to 7,520.36, while the Dow rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1%, leaving all three at record closes as lower oil offset mixed signals on US-Iran talks. Earnings and AI demand remained the main company story. Snowflake surged 37.8% after stronger results, higher guidance and a larger Amazon Web Services partnership, while Dell rose 4.4% after winning a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract. Salesforce slipped 1.8% as its update did not fully calm concerns about AI disruption.
• Europe: European equities were steadier, with the Stoxx 600 little changed at 628.18, the DAX almost flat, the CAC 40 up 0.4% to 8,207.89, the FTSE 100 up 0.1% and Switzerland’s SMI up 0.8%. Lower oil and EU steps to remove duties on some US goods helped sentiment, while autos rose after European car sales increased for a third month in April. Akzo Nobel jumped 19.5% after rejecting a takeover approach, giving chemicals a useful lift. BP fell 2.7% after removing Chairman Albert Manifold, keeping governance questions in focus. Markets now watch whether lower oil can last longer than a headline cycle.
• Asia: Asian equities turned lower today, reversing part of Wednesday’s AI-led rally as renewed Gulf tensions pushed oil higher again and reminded investors that geopolitics rarely respects a tidy market narrative. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.4%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped around 3.2% after its record run, and the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific index lost 2.1%. The pullback hit yesterday’s chip leaders, with SK Hynix and Samsung cooling after sharp gains tied to AI memory demand. Hong Kong also stayed weak, with the Hang Seng down 1.1%, as Alibaba, Xiaomi, XPeng and Li Auto remained under pressure. The next test is whether AI optimism can absorb another oil shock.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains relatively contained, but investors are entering a potentially market-moving session with a more cautious tone after renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher overnight. The VIX closed at 16.29 on Wednesday, down 4.23%, while shorter-dated volatility gauges also eased, suggesting markets are not yet pricing in panic despite geopolitical headlines. Futures this morning point slightly lower after reports of fresh US and Iranian military actions near the Strait of Hormuz lifted Brent crude back toward USD 97 per barrel, reviving inflation concerns ahead of today’s key US data releases.
• Today’s macro calendar matters. Markets will closely watch US Core PCE inflation, GDP revisions, durable goods orders and jobless claims, as stronger-than-expected data could reinforce the “higher for longer” rate narrative already voiced by several Fed officials this week. The combination of elevated oil prices and sticky inflation remains one of the biggest volatility risks for equities going into June.
• Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of roughly 52.5 points, or 0.70%, through Friday’s expiry. For today’s expiration, options positioning shows a mild upside skew, with traders paying slightly more for near-term calls than puts around the 7,520 level. The 7,520 call traded around 21.30 versus roughly 14.00 for the equivalent put, suggesting investors still see room for upside participation despite geopolitical noise.
• Institutional options flow continues to show a mixed but constructive backdrop. Large upside call exposure remained concentrated in names such as NVDA, AAPL and TSLA, while index hedging through SPY, QQQ and IWM puts showed that investors are still protecting portfolios against macro shocks. The overall message from the options market is not outright fear, but rather cautious participation with hedges still firmly in place.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets remain under pressure as macro uncertainty, geopolitical headlines and persistent ETF outflows continue to weigh on sentiment. Bitcoin traded near USD 72,800 overnight, while Ethereum slipped below USD 2,000, with most major altcoins also trading lower. XRP, Solana and Dogecoin all weakened alongside broader risk assets, reflecting a market that is still highly sensitive to rate expectations and liquidity conditions.
• The main pressure point remains institutional positioning. US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see notable outflows this week, with IBIT again at the centre of attention after reports of a large dark-pool block transaction coincided with bitcoin’s recent reversal lower. ETHA also remained weak as investors reduced exposure to Ethereum-linked products. While overall ETF assets remain sizeable, the near-term flow picture suggests institutions are becoming more selective rather than aggressively adding risk.
• At the same time, options flow in crypto-linked equities turned more constructive. Traders added upside exposure in names such as IREN, CORZ, COIN and MSTR through medium- and long-dated calls, signalling that some investors still expect renewed momentum if macro conditions stabilise. However, hedging activity in IBIT puts shows caution has not disappeared, especially ahead of today’s US PCE inflation release and next month’s Fed meeting.

Commodities

• Brent crude spiked to USD 98 from a USD 94 low on Wednesday after renewed US attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory IRGC strikes targeting US bases, underscoring the limited prospect for a near-term peace deal as the US and Iran remained far apart on steps needed to reopen the vital waterway. In a separate move, the US Treasury sanctioned the Persian Gulf Strait Authority in a bid to prevent Tehran from profiting from vessel transit tolls through the strait. Overall, the market remains caught between pricing the prospect of a deal and the growing realization that a resolution still looks increasingly elusive.
• Gold fell to a two-month low as US Treasuries sold off and the dollar strengthened following a fresh surge in crude oil prices, fuelling concerns that tight energy markets will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation. In addition, rising fuel costs are increasing pressure on some countries to sell bullion reserves to defend their currencies and support economies struggling with higher import bills. From a technical perspective, a sustained break below the 200-day moving average - currently at USD 4,395 and breached today for the first time since 2023 - raises the risk of a retest of the March low near USD 4,100.
• COMEX copper is once again trading at a rising premium to London, echoing last year’s dislocation, as traders continue shipping metal to the US amid renewed speculation about future import tariffs. The resulting surge in COMEX-monitored inventories to a fresh record has tightened availability elsewhere, thereby helping underpin prices for a metal already in strong demand from the global energy transition. Attention now turns to the June 30 deadline for the US Commerce Secretary to deliver an update on the domestic copper market, a review that could pave the way for import duties from January 2027.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries sold off and yields backed up on a fresh surge in crude oil prices as US military actions against Iranian targets cast doubt on the status of peace talks. The benchmark 2-year Treasury yield jumped four basis points after yesterday’s close to 4.07% while the benchmark 10-year yield likewise rose four basis points to 4.52%, with 4.50% clearly a psychologically important area for that benchmark. The US treasury is set to auction 7-year notes later Thursday.
• Japan’s government bond yields fell at the shorter end of the curve despite the pressure on US treasuries as it emerged that Japan’s government will seek to use “bridging bonds” to finance any supplemental budget initiatives from the Takaichi government. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield fell more than three basis points toward 1.355% and near the lowest level in over a month. The benchmark 10-year JGB was slightly steadier, only about a basis point lower and near 2.69%. Bridging bonds are issued on the logic that they will only temporarily have to cover funding shortfalls, awaiting future revenue sources to pay them back and receive a different classification from standard JGBs.

Currencies

• The US dollar rose in knee-jerk fashion on the jump in crude oil prices and US treasury yields. EURUSD dipped below 1.1600 for the first time since last week after trading as high as 1.1661 on Wednesday. Focus there on the range low just below 1.1580. GBPUSD dipped south of 1.3400 and to a Thursday session low in late Asian trading hours at 1.3368 before bouncing.
• As USDJPY creeps higher toward the psychologically significant 160.00 level, above which Japan’s Ministry of Finance moved with massive intervention to prevent further JPY weakening, traders await the official data on how much the MoF has intervened, set for release on Friday.
• The AUDNZD selloff extended aggressively late Wednesday after a more hawkish than expected RBNZ meeting that supported NZD, while the AUD weakness was likely aggravated by fresh weakness in metals prices. In early hours Thursday, the pair hit a low of 1.2066 before bouncing back above 1.2100. This after trading as high as 1.2288 just before the RBNZ announcement.

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