Market Quick Take – 28 January 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US was mixed as tech offset healthcare losses, Europe rose on earnings and trade hopes, Asia climbed ahead of the Fed.
• Volatility: Vix stable, Fed decision in focus, heavy mega-cap earnings
• Digital assets: BTC steady near $90k, ETH around $3k, ETF outflows, macro sensitivity remains
• Fixed income: Japan’s yields drop on orderly 40-year JGB auction. US awaits FOMC meeting today with no rate move anticipation.
• Currencies: USD blasted weaker after Trump comments on the US dollar, but move tempered in Asian hours. NOK surged.
• Commodities: Debasement trade lifts gold and silver as Trump talks down the dollar
• Macro events: Bank of Canada rate decision, FOMC rate decision

Macro headlines

• The Fed is likely to announce no change to the rate target range of 3.50-3.75% at Wednesday’s FOMC, amidst speculation of Trump naming a dovish Fed chair. The dollar is under pressure from potential shutdown fears due to Homeland Security funding disputes and a broader "sell America" trade amid possible US-Japan currency intervention.
• President Trump was out with a number of statements late Tuesday suggesting the administration is happy to see the greenback weaker. Trump indicated that he thought the recent US dollar decline was “great”, but that “I could have it go up or go down like a yo yo”. He also complained about China and Japan’s currency, saying the two countries “always want to devalue”.
• Australia Dec. CPI out at 3.8% YoY vs. 3.6% expected and 3.4% in Nov., while the Trimmed Mean CPI measure decelerated to 0.2% MoM vs. 0.3% in November and the YoY measure came in at 3.3% as expected and vs. 3.2% in Nov. The overall Q4 Trimmed Mean CPI measure came in 0.9% QoQ and 3.4% YoY vs. 0.9%/3.3% expected.
• The Case-Shiller Index rose 1.4% year-over-year in November 2025, slightly above October’s 1.3%, marking the first rise in ten months but near a two-year low. Home prices lagged 2.7% inflation. Chicago led with a 5.7% gain, while Tampa fell 3.9%, and Sun Belt markets like Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami also declined.
• The finalized EU-India trade deal creates a free trade zone covering a quarter of global GDP and two billion people after nearly 20 years of negotiations. It aims to open markets amidst US tariffs and Chinese controls, with the EU expecting exports to India to double by 2032
• Tether Holdings SA has emerged as the largest known holder of gold outside central banks and nation states, with holdings of around 140 tonnes valued at roughly USD 23 billion. The company is reportedly adding one to two tonnes per week and intends to continue doing so, providing an additional and increasingly significant source of demand alongside sustained central-bank buying and broad investor interest.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1200 – US January MBA Mortgage Applications
1445 – Bank of Canada Rate Decision
1900 – FOMC Rate Decision
2130 – Brazil Selic Rate announcement

Earnings events

• Today: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, ASML, Lam Research, IBM, Amphenol, GE Vernova, AT&T, Danaher, ServiceNow, Starbucks, General Dynamics
• Thursday: Apple, Samsung, Visa, Mastercard, Roche, SK Hynix, Caterpillar, SAP, ThermoFisher Scientific, KLA Corp, Blackstone, Southern Copper, ABB, Lockheed Martin
• Friday: ExxonMobil, Cheveron, American Express, Verizon, Regeneron

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: Wall Street finished mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% to 6,978.60 and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.9% to 23,817.10, while the Dow fell 0.8% to 49,003.41. Investors leaned into big tech ahead of the Fed, but healthcare dragged hard. UnitedHealth slid 19.6% after a weak report and a softer Medicare Advantage rate backdrop, and CVS dropped 14.1% on similar pressure. General Motors jumped 8.8% after lifting its 2026 outlook, while Micron rose 5.4% as AI-linked chip demand stayed firm.
• Europe: European equities advanced on Tuesday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.6% to 5,994.59, the Stoxx 600 up 0.6% to 613.11, and the FTSE 100 up 0.6% to 10,207.80. Sentiment improved on earnings optimism and trade headlines after the EU and India said they had finalised a free trade agreement in principle. ASML gained 3.4% ahead of results and Argenx climbed 4.9% as healthcare led, while Puma rallied 9.0% after Anta Sports bought a stake. UniCredit and BBVA were both up about 2.0% as banks stayed in demand, with the Fed reaction setting the next tone.
• Asia: Asian markets followed the risk-on mood, led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1.4% to 27,126.95, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to 53,333.54 and the Topix added 0.3% to 3,563.59. Mainland China was steadier, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 4,139.86 as the CSI 300 was little changed at 4,705.69. Financials supported Hong Kong after China’s central bank talked up stronger market links, and data showed China’s industrial profits grew in 2025 for the first time in four years. Zijin Gold International surged 11.6% on its Allied Gold deal, AIA rose 4.1%, Techtronic gained 3.0%, and China Taiping added 2.8%, with PMI data and the Fed next on the calendar.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains contained, with the VIX holding around the mid-16 area, but investor behaviour suggests caution has not disappeared. The skew index remains elevated, indicating that investors are still willing to pay more for downside protection than for upside participation. In other words, markets are advancing, but confidence is conditional rather than complacent. The key near-term risk catalyst is today’s Federal Reserve decision and press conference, where markets are likely to react more to guidance and tone than to the policy rate itself. This macro backdrop is reinforced by a heavy earnings calendar, led by several mega-cap technology names, which keeps uncertainty elevated even as equity indices grind higher.
• SPX expected move: options pricing implies a move of roughly ±80 points, or about ±1.16%, into this Friday’s expiry.
• 0DTE skew check: today’s expiry shows mild downside skew, with put options priced slightly richer than calls around current index levels, signalling continued demand for near-term protection.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets are steady, with bitcoin trading just below the $90,000 level and ethereum holding around $3,000, while solana and xrp are also modestly higher. Price action suggests a market that is digesting gains rather than accelerating. The ETF layer adds nuance: both IBIT and ETHA traded higher on the day, yet recent flow data points to a more defensive investor stance. U.S. bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows in the prior session, led by IBIT, while ethereum ETFs also saw withdrawals, with ETHA accounting for most of the move.
• This combination of stable prices but cautious flows suggests investors are maintaining exposure while remaining sensitive to macro signals, particularly today’s Fed decision. Crypto continues to behave as a liquidity-aware asset class, reacting less to headlines and more to shifts in broader risk appetite.

Fixed Income

• Japan’s government bond yields retreated as a 40-year JGB auction went smoothly. The benchmark 40-year JGB yield retreated almost three basis points to 3.92% in the wake of solid demand metrics for the auction, while the entire Japanese government bond yield curve fell, with the benchmark 2-year yield down almost four basis points to 1.246% after the prior day’s multi-decade high. Likewise, the benchmark 10-year yield dropped back more than five basis points to 2.238%.
• US treasuries chopped around with little conviction, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield settling slightly lower and still below the key 3.60% area ahead of today’s FOMC meeting (no change expected and the market is awaiting the identity of President Trump’s Fed Chair nomination), while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose slightly yesterday to 4.25% before easing lower to below 4.24% Wednesday in Asian hours.

Commodities

• Gold and silver extended their strong rally with the debasement trade back in sharp focus after Trump was seen talking down the dollar, which slipped to a four-year low. Adding to the narrative, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder – who favours aggressive rate cuts – is now seen as a leading candidate for the next Fed chair. Gold reached USD 5,266 (up 17.3% YTD) and silver USD 116.1 (up 59% YTD) during the Asian session. Extreme volatility in silver, especially on Monday, has prompted the CME to raise initial margins on silver futures from 9% to 11%. Markets now turn their attention to the dollar, yields, today’s FOMC meeting, where no rate cut is expected, and a fresh burst of Trump messages.
• The ongoing silver frenzy continues to strain the physical market. Western refiners are struggling to cope with a surge in scrap selling from investors looking to cash in, while availability of refined bars and coins remains tight. Demand is being led by China, where silver continues to trade at substantial premiums to Western prices. Reflecting the speculative intensity, China’s only pure-play silver fund today halted trading after a buying frenzy pushed its price to a steep premium over net asset value.
• Copper joined the broader metals rally, trading near USD 6 per pound in New York, despite warnings from Goldman Sachs that the recent surge across industrial metals risks undermining demand, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer. The caution is echoed by a widening contango in London and a rise in exchange-monitored inventories to multi-year highs.

Currencies

• The US dollar was already weak Tuesday before US President Trump’s comments on the dollar suggested his administration was happy to see it lower. After breaking to new highs since late 2021 above 1.1919, EURUSD accelerated higher suddenly on Trump’s comments to a high of 1.2081 before retreating well back below 1.2000 by late in Asian hours, hitting a session low of 1.1975 before bouncing. USDCHF hit a new low of 0.7605, lower than any weekly close ever. Only intra-week action in 2011 and intraday action in early 2015 was lower in the history of the exchange rate.
• AUDUSD vaulted above 0.7000 on the general USD weakness and after Australia’s CPI report (see above), which slightly raised odds of an RBA hike next week.
• NOK surged aggressively versus not only the US dollar, but also against the Euro as a government-appointed advisory panel said the company’s petrol fund said it needed to raise its preparedness to handle growing geopolitical risks. “The fund may ultimately be subject to increased taxation, regulatory intervention and even confiscation.”

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