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Market Quick Take - 28 August 2025
Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team
Market Quick Take – 28 August 2025
Market drivers and catalysts
- Equities: U.S. eked out new highs as investors positioned for Nvidia; Europe inched up on discretionary strength despite bank downgrades; Asia flat; UK slipped as banks lagged
- Volatility: Vol is still sleepy, curve in mild contango, options point to about a 1% SPX swing
- Digital Assets: Ether and Bitcoin up. Both U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs pulled in net inflows.
- Fixed Income: US short yields hit new recent lows. French sovereign yields continue to show strain.
- Currencies: JPY rallies on lower US yields, calm JGB market. EUR broadly weak.
- Commodities: Precious metals supported by Fed independence concerns and lower yields
- Macro events: US Q2 GDP Revision, US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Fed’s Waller to speak
Macro headlines
- Nvidia’s shares fell 3% in extended hours even as CEO Jensen Huang said demand is ‘really high’. Instead, investors focused on a growth curve that show signs of flattening after two-year AI boom, that supported global equities on bets that it would continue to bolster technology earnings.
- Bank of Japan board member Nakagawa indicated she supported further rate hikes if conditions allow, although did note uncertainties linked to trade. Tokyo August inflation figures are up in Japan’s Friday session tonight. Market anticipation of a rate hike at the BoJ’s October meeting (defined at 25 basis points) have risen to nearly 50%.
Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)
0900 – Eurozone Aug. Economic, Industrial, Services Confidence Surveys
1130 – ECB Meeting Minutes
1230 – US Q2 GDP Revision
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Change and Continuing Claims
1430 – EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change
1700 – US Treasury to Auction 7-year notes
2200 – US Fed’s Waller to speak on Monetary Policy
2330 – Japan Jul. Jobless Rate
Earnings events
Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.
- Today: Dell, Marvell Technologies, Autodesk
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.
Equities
USA
U.S. stocks inched higher as traders waited for Nvidia’s results and the S&P 500 set another record. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.2%, and the Dow 0.3%. MongoDB jumped 38.0% after a strong quarter and raised outlook, while Okta gained 1.6% on beats and higher guidance. Cracker Barrel rose 8.0% after reversing a logo change under public pressure, as Nvidia slipped 0.1% into the print. Snowflake rose 13% into its after-hours beat, while CrowdStrike added 1.2% ahead of its results, but fell 4.2% in extended hours on a soft outlook on next quarter revenues. Focus shifts to PCE on Friday for the next macro cue.
Europe
European stocks edged higher as investors weighed French political risk ahead of Nvidia. The STOXX 600 closed up 0.1% and CAC 40 gained 0.4%, while banks lagged after Goldman cut Deutsche Bank (−3.4%) and Commerzbank (−4.9%). Swatch climbed 6.3% after commentary on offsetting U.S. tariffs with pricing, but DiaSorin fell 5.8% on a new “underweight” at JPM. German consumer confidence declined for a third month, underscoring a cautious backdrop.
Asia
Hong Kong opened up 0.2% to 25,565 as tech and consumer names steadied. A small lift in U.S. futures ahead of Nvidia and Friday’s PCE helped risk appetite. In China, July industrial profits fell 1.5% year over year versus −4.3% in June, putting Jan–Jul at −1.7%. Gains were limited by U.S. policy headlines after President Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a step likely headed for court review.
UK
FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as banks and exchanges lagged. JD Sports rose 3% on signs of improving U.S. sales, but Prudential fell 1.7% even after a $1.1bn buyback update, and London Stock Exchange Group eased 1.3% to underperform the tape. Energy and defensives helped limit losses.
Digital Assets
Bitcoin closed at $112,880 (+1.5%) and Ethereum at $4,580 (+1.6%) on the 00:00 UTC cut. U.S. spot BTC ETFs posted $81.4m net inflows, led by IBIT (+$50.9m) and FBTC (+$14.7m). U.S. spot ETH ETFs took in $307.2m, dominated by ETHA (+$262.6m).
Volatility
Spot VIX sits below the Sep future, keeping the term structure in contango. With VIX at 14.85 versus Sep VIX future 16.90, the vol market implies a 60.6-point, 0.9% daily move for the S&P 500. Skew and single-name dispersion remain moderate into heavyweight earnings.
Fixed Income
- US Treasury yields fell again yesterday as demand metrics for the latest US Treasury auction of 5-year notes rebounded from the prior weak auction. The benchmark two-year yield dipped six basis points to 3.61%, the lowest since early May, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield has fallen over three basis points from Tuesday’s close , trading at 4.22% overnight in Asia after a 4.234% close yesterday.
- The Germany-France 10-year yield spreads widened another four basis points yesterday to close the day at 82 basis points, the highest since January, as France’s benchmark 10-year OAT yield closed above 3.50% for the first time since March.
- Japanese government bond yields dipped at the front end of the yield curve despite very weak bidding metrics at the latest auction of 2-year Japanese Government Bonds, where bidding metrics were the weakest since 2009. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dipped two basis points to 0.86%, and while the 10-year JGB yield was almost unchanged, the 30-year JGB yield that hit a new modern record high yesterday dipped four basis points to 3.20% to close back within the recent range.
Commodities
Forex
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The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..