Market Quick Take – 28 August 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

Macro headlines

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Eurozone Aug. Economic, Industrial, Services Confidence Surveys
1130 – ECB Meeting Minutes
1230 – US Q2 GDP Revision
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Change and Continuing Claims
1430 – EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change
1700 – US Treasury to Auction 7-year notes
2200 – US Fed’s Waller to speak on Monetary Policy
2330 – Japan Jul. Jobless Rate

Earnings events

Note: earnings announcement dates can change with little notice. Consult other sources to confirm earnings releases as they approach.

• Today: Dell, Marvell Technologies, Autodesk

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

USA
U.S. stocks inched higher as traders waited for Nvidia’s results and the S&P 500 set another record. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.2%, and the Dow 0.3%. MongoDB jumped 38.0% after a strong quarter and raised outlook, while Okta gained 1.6% on beats and higher guidance. Cracker Barrel rose 8.0% after reversing a logo change under public pressure, as Nvidia slipped 0.1% into the print. Snowflake rose 13% into its after-hours beat, while CrowdStrike added 1.2% ahead of its results, but fell 4.2% in extended hours on a soft outlook on next quarter revenues. Focus shifts to PCE on Friday for the next macro cue.

Digital Assets

Bitcoin closed at $112,880 (+1.5%) and Ethereum at $4,580 (+1.6%) on the 00:00 UTC cut. U.S. spot BTC ETFs posted $81.4m net inflows, led by IBIT (+$50.9m) and FBTC (+$14.7m). U.S. spot ETH ETFs took in $307.2m, dominated by ETHA (+$262.6m).

Volatility

Spot VIX sits below the Sep future, keeping the term structure in contango. With VIX at 14.85 versus Sep VIX future 16.90, the vol market implies a 60.6-point, 0.9% daily move for the S&P 500. Skew and single-name dispersion remain moderate into heavyweight earnings.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields fell again yesterday as demand metrics for the latest US Treasury auction of 5-year notes rebounded from the prior weak auction. The benchmark two-year yield dipped six basis points to 3.61%, the lowest since early May, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield has fallen over three basis points from Tuesday’s close , trading at 4.22% overnight in Asia after a 4.234% close yesterday.
• The Germany-France 10-year yield spreads widened another four basis points yesterday to close the day at 82 basis points, the highest since January, as France’s benchmark 10-year OAT yield closed above 3.50% for the first time since March.
• Japanese government bond yields dipped at the front end of the yield curve despite very weak bidding metrics at the latest auction of 2-year Japanese Government Bonds, where bidding metrics were the weakest since 2009. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield dipped two basis points to 0.86%, and while the 10-year JGB yield was almost unchanged, the 30-year JGB yield that hit a new modern record high yesterday dipped four basis points to 3.20% to close back within the recent range.

Commodities

• Gold continues to trade near USD 3,400, recovering from a mini dip caused by temporary dollar strength. Instead, worries over Fed independence and another drop in US Treasury yields—especially at the front end (see above)—have supported bullion this week. Focus, besides the dollar and yields, is the broader risk appetite and how markets respond to signs of a maturing AI boom and Friday’s PCE inflation print.
• Crude prices remain range-bound, with tariff-led risks to Indian demand for Russian crude being more than offset by expectations for an oversupplied market into the final quarter and beyond, as eight OPEC+ producers take aim at their raised production targets.

Forex

• The US dollar weakened again as it chops back and forth day-to-day, with the Japanese yen broadly stronger on a Bank of Japan board member hawkish comments, with USDJPY near 147.15 this morning after yesterday’s high above 148.00.
• The euro remains under pressure against sterling and the yen as French sovereign debt at the long end of the curve remains under pressure relative to German debt. EURGBP trades near 0.8620 this morning, just above the 0.8600 area which hasn’t fallen since early July. EURJPY dipped below 171.50 again overnight, trading not far from the 171.00 area, which is a three-week low.After a several weeks in a narrow trading zone, EURSEK dipped yesterday to close near 11.10, its lowest close since late June.

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