Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly

In the run-up to the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections, both red and blue states launch a frenzy of redrawing – or “gerrymandering” – of voting districts to gain seats in the House of Representatives, where all 435 members are up for election every two years. Ultimately, the 2026 mid-terms see the typical swing against the party in power, and the Democrats win control of the House with a margin of several seats, even as they only see a net swing of about ten seats in their favor. The Senate remains in Republican hands, but with a reduced majority, meaning that two of the swing-vote senators become influential policy “kingmakers”.

Most importantly, the behavior of politicians on both political sides generates widespread outrage. A massive campaign led by independent voters – America’s largest voting bloc – pushes through the establishment of a new commission to impartially redraw voting districts across the U.S., with a mandate to complete new maps in time for the 2028 presidential and congressional elections.

Equally important is the maturing awareness that the seemingly hopeless and dysfunctional partisanship has been artificially driven by social-media algorithms tuned to drive outrage and a “choose-your-own-reality” paradigm. A flood of AI-generated junk content and deepfakes further erodes popular trust in social media feeds. This leads to a surge in audiences for a smaller, more trusted set of balanced and reasonable voices as Americans look back with embarrassment on the degree to which they allowed themselves to be manipulated by their own behavioral tendencies and the algorithms of Meta, TikTok, and Google.

The mid-terms therefore set in motion a trend toward greater unity and civility as a new consensus emerges around the importance of maintaining the integrity of U.S. institutions and civil debate. Trump continues with his usual style, but the US has moved on, the Republican unity begins to fracture and the U.S. transitions beyond peak populism.

Market impact: rise in US Treasuries (lower yields), decline in social media stocks, crypto, gold and silver.