Market Quick Take – 28 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US stocks held record highs, Europe slipped on oil and geopolitics, while Asian chips rallied on Hormuz hopes.
• Volatility: VIX holds near 18 in event-heavy week
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin stays below 80k while ethereum lags, with IBIT and ETHA weaker as positioning turns more cautious
• Fixed Income: Odds of BoJ rate hike rising after hawkish dissents and more hawkish guidance from BoJ meeting
• Currencies: JPY rallies on more hawkish BoJ, USD also firm on geopolitical concerns
• Commodities: Oil’s continued rally weighing on gold and silver
• Macro events: Ueda’s Press Briefing & US April Consumer Confidence

Macro headlines

• The yen pushed higher after the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 6-3 split vote, with traders now seeing a 74% chance of a rate hike in June. The board raised its forecast for core inflation to 2.8% for this fiscal year, more than expected while revising economic growth of 0.5% from 1% previously. Attention now turns to Ueda’s press briefing at 6:30 GMT.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% at its policy meeting on Wednesday, with the central bank gathering overshadowed by political drama surrounding the leadership handover. A Justice Department decision last week to drop a controversial criminal investigation of the Fed has cleared the way for the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair.
• US-Iran peace talks remain at an impasse, with efforts to restart negotiations stalled. Iranian media report that the conflict could end if the US lifts its naval blockade, agrees to a new legal framework governing traffic through the Strait, and guarantees there will be no future attacks. However, Trump’s red lines -including preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon - remain a major sticking point separating the two sides.
• A packed week of central bank rate decisions is underway, with the Bank of Japan already meeting Tuesday, while the Bank of Canada, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England all scheduled to set interest rates this week. This marks a rare week in which every Group of Seven central bank convenes.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0630 – Ueda’s post BOJ meeting press briefing
1215 – US Weekly ADP Employment Change for four weeks ending Apr 11
1300 – US Feb. Home Price Index
1400 – US Apr. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
1400 – US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence
1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year notes
0130 – Australia Mar. and Q1 CPI

Earnings this week

• Yesterday/Monday: Verizon, Advantest, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor
• Today/Tuesday: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, T-Mobile US, Airbus, Booking Holdings, S&P Global, Seagate Technology, BP, Starbucks, Spotify, Atlas Copco, UPS, Robinhood, Mondelez, General Motors, Bloom Energy
• Wednesday: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, Amphenol, Carvana, General Dynamics
• Thursday: Apple, Samsung Electronics, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, Sandisk, Western Digital, Tokyo Electron, Royal Caribbean Cruises
• Friday: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Mitsubishi

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 7,173.91, while the Nasdaq 100 was little changed and the Dow slipped 0.1% as investors waited for a heavy megacap earnings week. Nvidia gained 4.0% and closed at a record high as AI enthusiasm pushed its market value above USD 5 trillion, while Arm Holdings fell 8.1% on concerns it may be left out of a possible Qualcomm-OpenAI chip project. Domino’s Pizza dropped 8.8% after missing earnings and revenue expectations, a reminder that even pizza is not immune to consumer pressure. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple now take the microphone.
• Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3% to 608.84, while the DAX lost 0.2%, the FTSE 100 dropped 0.6% and the Euro Stoxx 50 declined 0.4% as higher oil and stalled US-Iran talks kept pressure on risk appetite. ASML fell 3.0% and was the biggest drag on the wider index as technology weakened, while Verisure dropped 5.9%. Siemens Energy lost 5.4% in Frankfurt, adding to the DAX’s sixth straight decline, while Shell weighed on London as energy risks stayed front and centre. Investors now look to central bank signals and whether earnings can steady the mood.
• Asia: Asian stocks rose after reports that Iran had offered a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, helping sentiment recover after recent energy worries. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.7%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.2% to 6,615.03 as chip strength did most of the heavy lifting. SK Hynix rose 5.7% and Samsung Electronics gained 2.3% on memory and AI optimism, while Taiwan’s Taiex was supported by TSMC reaching a record high. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 0.6%, with Seatrium down 2.9%, showing the rally was broad, but not universal.

Volatility

• Volatility eased, but it has not disappeared. The VIX closed at 18.02 (-3.69%) on 27 April, while very short-term measures dropped more sharply, with VIX1D at 10.57 (-36%), suggesting near-term calm before a heavier event window. That window includes the Fed decision on 29 April, a dense run of Mag-7 earnings, and continued uncertainty around the Iran situation and oil prices. Investors are still participating in markets, but the backdrop remains one of caution rather than confidence.
• Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of about 97 points, or 1.35%, into Friday (1 May) from around 7,174.
• For today’s expiry, the expected move is much smaller at roughly 31 points, or 0.43%, reflecting a quieter session ahead of the main catalysts. The skew signal for today is balanced: around the 7,175 strike, call and put implied volatility are almost identical (~13.8% vs ~13.7%), indicating no strong demand for immediate downside protection. That said, broader positioning still leans defensive, suggesting investors remain hedged into the key events.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are softer this morning as investors trim risk ahead of central bank decisions and major earnings. Bitcoin is trading around USD 76,950 (-0.6%), holding below the key USD 80,000 level, while Ethereum sits near USD 2,290 (-0.7%). The move reflects a more cautious tone across global markets, with macro uncertainty and higher energy prices weighing on sentiment.
• ETF performance shows a similar pattern. Bitcoin exposure remains relatively resilient, but IBIT declined around 1.0%, suggesting some near-term profit taking. Ethereum-linked exposure continues to lag, with ETHA down about 1.4%, reinforcing weaker relative demand. Across altcoins, the tone is mildly negative but orderly: Solana (~USD 84) and XRP (~USD 1.39) are lower, while crypto-related equities such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy are also under pressure.
• Options flow confirms a more defensive stance, with increased demand for downside protection in Bitcoin-related products and crypto equities, while selective upside exposure remains. The overall signal is not risk-off, but more cautious positioning into a busy macro week.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries traded in tight ranges, showing little reaction to the latest significant rise in crude oil prices. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield rose slightly to 3.80% and the benchmark 10-year yield likewise edged higher, to close to the two-week range high near 4.35%.
• Japan’s short-dated government bond yields rose on a more hawkish than expected Bank of Japan meeting Tuesday (see above). As of this writing, BoJ Governor Ueda has yet to start the post-BoJ meeting press conference. Odds of a BoJ rate hike in June only rose slightly, while the benchmark 2-year JGB yield nudged a bit more than a basis point higher to near 1.38%, slightly below the highs of last week. Longer yields were almost unchanged after a slight rise earlier in the session on Tuesday.

Commodities

• Oil extended its rally, with Brent trading near USD 111 amid no signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, where US and Iranian blockades have reduced daily transits to near zero. Warnings over the severity of the global supply squeeze continue to intensify, with tightness in refined fuel markets already pushing diesel and jet fuel prices toward USD 200 per barrel. The market’s immediate focus remains on mediation efforts, with a new Iranian proposal reportedly under consideration by the US administration.
• Gold continues to lose ground, falling in early European trading to a three-week low of USD 4,625 as traders remain focused on rising energy prices - with Brent climbing to USD 111 - and the resulting inflationary impact at a time when AI-driven investment spending is helping support US growth, thereby reducing the FOMC’s need to cut rates for now. However, the stagflationary impact of the energy crisis, combined with mounting fiscal debt concerns and an ongoing de-dollarisation trend, remains supportive over the longer term, with these drivers currently being overshadowed by the market’s near-term focus on oil-driven inflation. Meanwhile economic growth and industrial demand dependent silver trades near USD 73.50 with the gold-silver ratio rising above 63.

Currencies

• The Japanese yen gained on a more hawkish BoJ stance and the three hawkish dissenting voices in the decision to keep rates unchanged at Tuesday’s meeting (see more above). Ahead of what could prove an impactful BoJ Governor Ueda press conference late Tuesday in Tokyo, USDJPY trades near 159.15 after a low just below 159.00 post-BoJ decision, while EURJPY trades near 186.30, down from 186.87 on Monday’s close.
• The US dollar rose Monday and early Tuesday, outpacing most G10 currencies aside from the strong Japanese yen. This is perhaps on the fresh aggravated rise in crude oil prices that is taking the steam out of risk sentiment late Monday and early Tuesday. EURUSD pushed below 1.1710 early Tuesday after a rally attempt Monday that faltered above 1.1750, while AUDUSD was more resilient, only backing off to below 0.7180 after a rally as high as 0.7200 on Monday.

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