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Open Interest Monitor - 7 Oct 2025 - IBIT and ETHA deep dive

Options 10 minutes to read
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Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Open Interest Monitor – 7 October 2025 - IBIT and ETHA deep dive

Data through market close 2025-10-03

This monitor scans US-listed options markets to identify where open interest (OI) is concentrated, where skew and IV suggest positioning, and how this translates into sentiment signals. Each edition also features a focused options deep dive on a selected underlying—where we analyze volatility structure, positioning, and flow data to better understand what market participants may be anticipating.


Deep dive: what options tell us about Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

After Bitcoin hit a new all-time high over the weekend, options trading in crypto-linked ETFs also saw a spike in activity. This week, we take a closer look at two of the most actively traded crypto ETFs with listed options: IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) and ETHA (iShares Ethereum Trust). We focus on the options expiring this Friday (10 October) and the next monthly expiry (21 November), looking at where investors are positioned and what the options market is pricing in.

Understanding skew and volatility structure

Option prices often reveal what traders expect—or fear. By comparing the implied volatility of calls and puts with similar deltas (e.g., 25-delta puts vs 25-delta calls), we can spot whether downside protection (puts) or upside speculation (calls) is more expensive.

IBIT: For options expiring this Friday, puts are slightly more expensive than calls, which may reflect near-term hedging. But for the November expiry, that flips—calls are pricier, suggesting more demand for upside exposure over the next few weeks.

ETHA: A similar pattern, but more pronounced. The difference in implied volatility between puts and calls in November is wider than in IBIT, indicating stronger relative demand for upside in Ethereum.

Additionally, the term structure—the change in implied volatility between shorter- and longer-dated options—is upward sloping for both ETFs. This is often seen when traders expect more uncertainty or movement in the future than in the immediate term.

  • IBIT’s longer-dated options (Nov) are priced about 3.3 percentage points higher in volatility than this week’s options.
  • ETHA’s difference is even steeper, at around 6.9 percentage points, suggesting traders see Ethereum as more volatile—or eventful—going into year-end.

Key price levels: where the market sees movement

From current option prices, we can estimate how much the market expects these ETFs to move by the end of the week.

  • IBIT: Trading at $69.81, with a projected range of $67.37 to $72.25 for this Friday (based on options pricing).
  • ETHA: Trading at $34.26, with a broader expected range of $32.31 to $36.22—a move of nearly 5.7%, reflecting higher implied volatility in Ethereum.

We also looked at the “max pain” point—the price where the most call and put options would expire worthless. While not a forecast, it’s sometimes used to gauge where market-makers might prefer the underlying to settle.

  • Max pain levels: IBIT at $65, ETHA at $32—both below current prices.
2025-10-07-01-ETHA-OI_10oct2025
Open interest distribution for ETHA options expiring 10 October 2025, with peak call volume centered at-the-money around $34–35 © SaxoTraderGO / Pro
This ETHA chart shows a tight concentration of call and put positions centered near the current price, reinforcing the idea that the market sees $34–35 as a gravitational level for expiry. With a relatively low put/call ratio (0.42), the data also hints at limited demand for downside protection in the very near term.
2025-10-07-02-IBIT-OI_21nov2025
Open interest distribution for IBIT options expiring 21 November 2025, highlighting concentration in calls at 65–130 strike levels © SaxoTrader Go/Pro

By contrast, the IBIT chart for November shows significant open interest building far above current price, especially at the $100 and $130 strikes. This suggests either speculative bullish interest or aggressive call overwriting strategies by large holders.

Where positions are concentrated

By scanning open interest (the number of outstanding options contracts), we can see where traders have placed their bets or hedges.

  • IBIT: Large positions are clustered around $65.5, $69.5, and $70 into this Friday. For November, attention shifts higher—toward $72, $100, and $130.
  • ETHA: The $31–36 range dominates both short- and longer-dated expiries. The weekly chain is centered tightly around spot, while November flows spread slightly wider—$29, $31, $36.

Option flow and unusual activity

Options flow data also highlights where investors are focusing capital.

  • ETHA: A large trade in the 10 Oct 36.5 Call, with over 7,000 contracts traded, suggests positioning for a short-term breakout.
  • IBIT: Notable volume in weekly calls around the $72 level also reflects speculative upside interest.

When we group recent trades by type, we see that net premium spent is higher on calls for both ETFs. This doesn't mean investors are bullish per se—but it does show they’re paying more to gain exposure to potential upside than downside.

Educational takeaways

  • Options skew: By comparing the cost of puts vs calls, traders can assess whether the market is more concerned with downside protection or upside participation. For ETHA and IBIT, skew flips from put-heavy near-term to call-heavy further out.
  • Expected move: Knowing the range the market expects can help set price targets for spreads, exits, or protective trades.
  • Open interest clusters: These may act as psychological or technical zones. High OI at certain strikes can pin prices toward expiry, or signal zones where traders are most active.
  • Max pain: While not a trading signal, the max pain level offers an idea of where the greatest number of options would expire worthless—potentially shaping price action near expiry.
  • Flow and volume: Monitoring unusual activity helps identify where large capital is flowing—whether for speculation or hedging. It doesn’t predict direction but reveals where interest is concentrated.

How to use this information – educational perspectives for different market views

With volatility levels still elevated—especially in Ethereum-linked options—some traders may look to structure positions that benefit from rich premiums and defined risk. The current option setup in ETHA and IBIT allows for varied interpretations depending on market expectations, but each carries trade-offs and potential drawbacks.

  • If your outlook is bullish: Traders might sell cash-secured puts at strikes near the recent open interest clusters (e.g., ETHA $31 or IBIT $65). The goal is to collect premium while being willing to own the ETF at a lower price. While high implied volatility boosts premium income, it also reflects greater downside risk. A sharp selloff could result in assignment and unrealized losses on the long ETF position.
  • If your outlook is neutral: With both ETFs showing concentrated open interest near spot, short iron condors or straddles may be considered for rangebound expectations. These strategies benefit from time decay, but losses can escalate quickly if the ETF breaks out of the expected range. Tight risk management and well-defined wings are essential to avoid large drawdowns.
  • If your outlook is bearish: Bear call spreads placed near the upper end of the expected move range (e.g., ETHA $36 or IBIT $72) allow for limited-risk participation in downside scenarios. However, if prices continue rallying—particularly in a momentum-driven crypto environment—these spreads can incur max loss. The fixed risk is helpful, but sizing and conviction must align.

These examples are for educational purposes only. Open interest, volatility, and price levels can offer useful clues, but outcomes depend on broader market conditions, catalysts, and personal risk tolerance. Use defined-risk strategies and ensure proper position sizing. Actual outcomes depend on volatility shifts, news catalysts, and your personal risk profile. Use defined-risk strategies and a disciplined approach to trade management. Monitoring unusual activity helps identify where large capital is flowing—whether for speculation or hedging. It doesn’t predict direction but reveals where interest is concentrated.


Open interest ranking: shifting focus to one-month momentum

Following the deep dive into IBIT and ETHA, we return to our core scan across the US-listed options universe. In past editions, we ranked underlyings by total open interest—a measure of where institutional exposure is largest. While still relevant, this week we spotlight a different angle: where open interest is growing the fastest.

Specifically, we rank underlyings by one-month change in open interest (1M OI % Chg), filtered for names with daily options volume above 100,000 contracts. This shift highlights where trader interest is rising most sharply and may uncover early positioning, momentum strategies, or event-driven build-ups that aren't yet reflected in the absolute OI leaderboard.

Top 20 by 1M OI % chg (options vol > 100,000)

RankSymbolNameLastIV Rank (%)Total OI1M OI % ChgOptions VolP/C Vol
1RRRichtech Robotics Inc Cl B6.1830.2300.4K1.4286182.8K0.19
2LACLithium Americas Corp9.0420.0457.6K0.8458249.2K0.28
3BYNDBeyond Meat Inc2.5764.1774.5K0.6568123.1K2.48
4FCXFreeport-Mcmoran Inc39.6730.11.5M0.3725183.3K0.26
5BULLWebull Corp Cl A14.1945.61.1M0.3596258.5K0.38
6BMNRBitmine Immersion Technologies Inc56.6528.91.3M0.3553449.4K0.38
7BITFBitfarms Ltd3.0111.81.0M0.3528127.6K0.22
8DKNGDraftkings Inc35.3732.7930.3K0.3459111.1K0.26
9QUBTQuantum Computing Inc24.6215.5561.0K0.3415451.9K0.56
10CIFRCipher Mining Inc14.752.51.3M0.2928280.6K0.18
11PLUGPlug Power Inc3.8193.01.7M0.2919961.3K0.16
12RKTRocket Companies Inc Cl A17.848.01.8M0.2741201.3K0.51
13USARUSA Rare Earth Inc25.9632.8305.3K0.2384165.2K0.28
14SOCSable Offshore Corp19.0965.7903.6K0.219192.0K1.29
15IBITIshares Bitcoin Trust ETF69.8127.47.1M0.2081.3M0.33
16GRABGrab Holdings Ltd Cl A6.1623.02.0M0.1893105.3K0.12
17PFEPfizer Inc27.3731.53.2M0.1645453.9K0.17
18WBDDiscovery Inc Series A18.9971.11.7M0.159117.0K0.90
19BTBTBit Digital Inc3.521.2666.9K0.1579158.1K0.05
20PYPLPaypal Holdings69.2545.41.7M0.1568219.5K0.36

Note: Table now ranks US-listed underlyings by highest one‑month OI change, filtered to daily options volume > 100,000.

Column explainer (see glossary below)

  • IV Rank (%): Position of current IV within its 1Y range
  • Total OI: Aggregate open contracts (calls + puts)
  • 1M OI % Chg: One-month percentage change in OI
  • Options Vol: Most recent trading day total options volume
  • P/C Vol: Put-to-call volume ratio (1-day snapshot)

What traders can take away

This week’s open interest flows highlight a surge in activity across several speculative and thematic names. Companies like Richtech Robotics (RR), Lithium Americas (LAC), and Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the list, with one-month open interest gains exceeding 60% in some cases. While some of these names remain on the fringes of broader market leadership, the volume and open interest build suggest traders are aggressively positioning for near-term moves.

Implied volatility is also back in focus. Plug Power (PLUG) stands out with the highest IV Rank at 93%, indicating current implied vol is near the top of its 12-month range. Barrick Gold and Kenvue follow closely, both with IV Ranks above 70%, possibly reflecting upcoming event risk or idiosyncratic volatility.

Put/call volume ratios also offer insight into positioning. Bond ETFs such as LQD and HYG show extreme put/call readings, suggesting institutional hedging activity or duration-related caution. On the other side, tickers like EEM and Barrick Gold show very low put/call ratios, hinting at speculative call buying or short-covering.

A few observations

Several low-volatility setups persist. TLT, the 20+ Year Treasury ETF, remains pinned at a 0% IV Rank—its implied vol is at the lowest point of the past year. The VIX itself is also near record lows, reflecting subdued index hedging demand. PDD Holdings, a major Chinese e-commerce firm, joins them with an IV Rank under 7%, which may indicate complacency or seasonal quiet.

Bond-focused ETFs continue to show defensive flows. HYG dominates the top of the put/call ratio leaderboard, reinforcing the notion that large players are seeking downside protection amid rate uncertainty. At the same time, exposure in AI and semiconductor themes remains strong. Notably, names like SOXL (3x Semiconductors), TSM, and BBAI (BigBear.ai) show elevated interest, suggesting traders are still betting on momentum in tech.


Conclusion

This week’s options data reveals a notable shift in trader focus. Instead of piling into the largest open interest names, activity is accelerating in smaller, thematic, or event-driven underlyings—particularly those linked to crypto, AI, and speculative tech. The deep dive into IBIT and ETHA shows how skew, volatility term structure, and open interest clusters can provide insight into sentiment and positioning, even in newer ETFs.

At the same time, high put/call ratios in fixed income ETFs and low IV Rank in benchmarks like the VIX and TLT suggest a market with pockets of caution despite calm surface conditions. While tech and semis continue to attract bullish flows, the broadening of open interest into diverse tickers indicates that traders are preparing for multiple outcomes rather than placing one-sided bets.

As always, understanding how open interest shifts—and where volatility is being priced—can offer useful clues about where the market’s attention is going next.


Glossary

  • Ticker: the exchange-listed symbol for the underlying stock, ETF, or index. Indices are noted with a $ prefix in general use, but we map them to specific exchange codes in the ticker string.
  • Name: the company or ETF name associated with the ticker. ETFs typically describe their focus, such as “S&P 500” or “20+ Year Treasury Bonds.”
  • Last: The last traded price of the underlying asset (stock, ETF, or index). This gives a reference point for where the asset currently trades and helps identify how close it is to key strike levels in the option chain.
  • IV Rank (%): Implied Volatility Rank (IV Rank) shows where current implied volatility sits relative to the past 12 months. A reading of 0% means IV is at its lowest point of the year; 100% means it's at the highest. Higher IV Rank suggests options are more expensive compared to recent history, which may favour premium-selling strategies.
  • Total Open Interest (Total OI): This is the total number of open option contracts across both calls and puts for the underlying. It represents outstanding positions that have not yet been closed or exercised. High OI is often associated with deep liquidity and significant institutional interest.
  • 1M OI % Change: Shows how much total open interest has changed over the past month. A rising figure can point to fresh positioning or increased speculation, while a falling number may indicate closed-out trades or reduced interest in the underlying.
  • Options Volume: The number of option contracts traded during the most recent session. High volume relative to open interest may suggest new trades are being initiated. Sudden spikes often coincide with market-moving news or upcoming events.
  • Put/Call Volume Ratio (P/C Vol): This ratio compares the volume of puts traded to calls on the same day. A ratio above 1.0 implies more puts were traded (often for downside protection), while a value below 1.0 shows call-heavy flow (often speculative or bullish). Extreme readings can highlight skewed sentiment or potential contrarian signals.
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Wertschriftenhandel birgt Risiken. Die Verluste können die Einlagen auf Margin-Produkten übersteigen. Sie sollten verstehen wie unsere Produkte funktionieren und welche Risiken mit diesen einhergehen. Weiter sollten Sie abwägen, ob Sie es sich leisten können, ein hohes Risiko einzugehen, Ihr Geld zu verlieren. Um Ihnen das Verständnis der mit den entsprechenden Produkten verbundenen Risiken zu erleichtern, haben wir ein allgemeines Risikoaufklärungsdokument und eine Reihe von «Key Information Documents» (KIDs) zusammengestellt, in denen die mit jedem Produkt verbundenen Risiken und Chancen aufgeführt sind. Auf die KIDs kann über die Handelsplattform zugegriffen werden. Bitte beachten Sie, dass der vollständige Prospekt kostenlos über die Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG oder den Emittenten bezogen werden kann.

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