Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Data through market close 2025-10-03
This monitor scans US-listed options markets to identify where open interest (OI) is concentrated, where skew and IV suggest positioning, and how this translates into sentiment signals. Each edition also features a focused options deep dive on a selected underlying—where we analyze volatility structure, positioning, and flow data to better understand what market participants may be anticipating.
After Bitcoin hit a new all-time high over the weekend, options trading in crypto-linked ETFs also saw a spike in activity. This week, we take a closer look at two of the most actively traded crypto ETFs with listed options: IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) and ETHA (iShares Ethereum Trust). We focus on the options expiring this Friday (10 October) and the next monthly expiry (21 November), looking at where investors are positioned and what the options market is pricing in.
Option prices often reveal what traders expect—or fear. By comparing the implied volatility of calls and puts with similar deltas (e.g., 25-delta puts vs 25-delta calls), we can spot whether downside protection (puts) or upside speculation (calls) is more expensive.
IBIT: For options expiring this Friday, puts are slightly more expensive than calls, which may reflect near-term hedging. But for the November expiry, that flips—calls are pricier, suggesting more demand for upside exposure over the next few weeks.
ETHA: A similar pattern, but more pronounced. The difference in implied volatility between puts and calls in November is wider than in IBIT, indicating stronger relative demand for upside in Ethereum.
Additionally, the term structure—the change in implied volatility between shorter- and longer-dated options—is upward sloping for both ETFs. This is often seen when traders expect more uncertainty or movement in the future than in the immediate term.
From current option prices, we can estimate how much the market expects these ETFs to move by the end of the week.
We also looked at the “max pain” point—the price where the most call and put options would expire worthless. While not a forecast, it’s sometimes used to gauge where market-makers might prefer the underlying to settle.
By contrast, the IBIT chart for November shows significant open interest building far above current price, especially at the $100 and $130 strikes. This suggests either speculative bullish interest or aggressive call overwriting strategies by large holders.
By scanning open interest (the number of outstanding options contracts), we can see where traders have placed their bets or hedges.
Options flow data also highlights where investors are focusing capital.
When we group recent trades by type, we see that net premium spent is higher on calls for both ETFs. This doesn't mean investors are bullish per se—but it does show they’re paying more to gain exposure to potential upside than downside.
With volatility levels still elevated—especially in Ethereum-linked options—some traders may look to structure positions that benefit from rich premiums and defined risk. The current option setup in ETHA and IBIT allows for varied interpretations depending on market expectations, but each carries trade-offs and potential drawbacks.
These examples are for educational purposes only. Open interest, volatility, and price levels can offer useful clues, but outcomes depend on broader market conditions, catalysts, and personal risk tolerance. Use defined-risk strategies and ensure proper position sizing. Actual outcomes depend on volatility shifts, news catalysts, and your personal risk profile. Use defined-risk strategies and a disciplined approach to trade management. Monitoring unusual activity helps identify where large capital is flowing—whether for speculation or hedging. It doesn’t predict direction but reveals where interest is concentrated.
Following the deep dive into IBIT and ETHA, we return to our core scan across the US-listed options universe. In past editions, we ranked underlyings by total open interest—a measure of where institutional exposure is largest. While still relevant, this week we spotlight a different angle: where open interest is growing the fastest.
Specifically, we rank underlyings by one-month change in open interest (1M OI % Chg), filtered for names with daily options volume above 100,000 contracts. This shift highlights where trader interest is rising most sharply and may uncover early positioning, momentum strategies, or event-driven build-ups that aren't yet reflected in the absolute OI leaderboard.
Top 20 by 1M OI % chg (options vol > 100,000)
Rank | Symbol | Name | Last | IV Rank (%) | Total OI | 1M OI % Chg | Options Vol | P/C Vol |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | RR | Richtech Robotics Inc Cl B | 6.18 | 30.2 | 300.4K | 1.4286 | 182.8K | 0.19 |
2 | LAC | Lithium Americas Corp | 9.04 | 20.0 | 457.6K | 0.8458 | 249.2K | 0.28 |
3 | BYND | Beyond Meat Inc | 2.57 | 64.1 | 774.5K | 0.6568 | 123.1K | 2.48 |
4 | FCX | Freeport-Mcmoran Inc | 39.67 | 30.1 | 1.5M | 0.3725 | 183.3K | 0.26 |
5 | BULL | Webull Corp Cl A | 14.19 | 45.6 | 1.1M | 0.3596 | 258.5K | 0.38 |
6 | BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies Inc | 56.65 | 28.9 | 1.3M | 0.3553 | 449.4K | 0.38 |
7 | BITF | Bitfarms Ltd | 3.01 | 11.8 | 1.0M | 0.3528 | 127.6K | 0.22 |
8 | DKNG | Draftkings Inc | 35.37 | 32.7 | 930.3K | 0.3459 | 111.1K | 0.26 |
9 | QUBT | Quantum Computing Inc | 24.62 | 15.5 | 561.0K | 0.3415 | 451.9K | 0.56 |
10 | CIFR | Cipher Mining Inc | 14.7 | 52.5 | 1.3M | 0.2928 | 280.6K | 0.18 |
11 | PLUG | Plug Power Inc | 3.81 | 93.0 | 1.7M | 0.2919 | 961.3K | 0.16 |
12 | RKT | Rocket Companies Inc Cl A | 17.8 | 48.0 | 1.8M | 0.2741 | 201.3K | 0.51 |
13 | USAR | USA Rare Earth Inc | 25.96 | 32.8 | 305.3K | 0.2384 | 165.2K | 0.28 |
14 | SOC | Sable Offshore Corp | 19.09 | 65.7 | 903.6K | 0.219 | 192.0K | 1.29 |
15 | IBIT | Ishares Bitcoin Trust ETF | 69.81 | 27.4 | 7.1M | 0.208 | 1.3M | 0.33 |
16 | GRAB | Grab Holdings Ltd Cl A | 6.16 | 23.0 | 2.0M | 0.1893 | 105.3K | 0.12 |
17 | PFE | Pfizer Inc | 27.37 | 31.5 | 3.2M | 0.1645 | 453.9K | 0.17 |
18 | WBD | Discovery Inc Series A | 18.99 | 71.1 | 1.7M | 0.159 | 117.0K | 0.90 |
19 | BTBT | Bit Digital Inc | 3.5 | 21.2 | 666.9K | 0.1579 | 158.1K | 0.05 |
20 | PYPL | Paypal Holdings | 69.25 | 45.4 | 1.7M | 0.1568 | 219.5K | 0.36 |
Note: Table now ranks US-listed underlyings by highest one‑month OI change, filtered to daily options volume > 100,000.
This week’s open interest flows highlight a surge in activity across several speculative and thematic names. Companies like Richtech Robotics (RR), Lithium Americas (LAC), and Beyond Meat (BYND) topped the list, with one-month open interest gains exceeding 60% in some cases. While some of these names remain on the fringes of broader market leadership, the volume and open interest build suggest traders are aggressively positioning for near-term moves.
Implied volatility is also back in focus. Plug Power (PLUG) stands out with the highest IV Rank at 93%, indicating current implied vol is near the top of its 12-month range. Barrick Gold and Kenvue follow closely, both with IV Ranks above 70%, possibly reflecting upcoming event risk or idiosyncratic volatility.
Put/call volume ratios also offer insight into positioning. Bond ETFs such as LQD and HYG show extreme put/call readings, suggesting institutional hedging activity or duration-related caution. On the other side, tickers like EEM and Barrick Gold show very low put/call ratios, hinting at speculative call buying or short-covering.
Several low-volatility setups persist. TLT, the 20+ Year Treasury ETF, remains pinned at a 0% IV Rank—its implied vol is at the lowest point of the past year. The VIX itself is also near record lows, reflecting subdued index hedging demand. PDD Holdings, a major Chinese e-commerce firm, joins them with an IV Rank under 7%, which may indicate complacency or seasonal quiet.
Bond-focused ETFs continue to show defensive flows. HYG dominates the top of the put/call ratio leaderboard, reinforcing the notion that large players are seeking downside protection amid rate uncertainty. At the same time, exposure in AI and semiconductor themes remains strong. Notably, names like SOXL (3x Semiconductors), TSM, and BBAI (BigBear.ai) show elevated interest, suggesting traders are still betting on momentum in tech.
This week’s options data reveals a notable shift in trader focus. Instead of piling into the largest open interest names, activity is accelerating in smaller, thematic, or event-driven underlyings—particularly those linked to crypto, AI, and speculative tech. The deep dive into IBIT and ETHA shows how skew, volatility term structure, and open interest clusters can provide insight into sentiment and positioning, even in newer ETFs.
At the same time, high put/call ratios in fixed income ETFs and low IV Rank in benchmarks like the VIX and TLT suggest a market with pockets of caution despite calm surface conditions. While tech and semis continue to attract bullish flows, the broadening of open interest into diverse tickers indicates that traders are preparing for multiple outcomes rather than placing one-sided bets.
As always, understanding how open interest shifts—and where volatility is being priced—can offer useful clues about where the market’s attention is going next.