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Morning Brew September 2 - 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Bundesbank Hawkish - Nonfarm Dovish?
Good Morning
Markets are in a bit of a limbo ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll tomorrow as the next impulse on US monetary policy. The APD Employment figure came rather disappointing yesterday at 374k vs 613k expected. The Nonfarm payroll is expected at 750k but with a fairly large variance. High estimate is 1027 and the low 375
As expected, after the high EU inflation data, Bundesbank President Weidmann became vocal stating “The first P in PEPP stands for pandemic, not permanent, and for a good reason” urging near term tapering.
Equities remain high but are slightly lower over night with the US 30 at 35280, the US500 at 4522 and the US tech 100 at 15614. The Germany 30 is 15790. On the weak US data and Jens Weidmann, USD weakens and EUR gains, EURUSD trades at 1.1840 after a high of 1.1856, Gold trades 1813 and Silver 24.17. Bitcoin is near the 50k again, currently 49500 and Ethereum 3757.
Manufacturing PMIs from Asia show that the supply chain constraints are becoming worse and will cause production and shipping delays in Q3.
Apple will it would loosen the rules for certain in-app purchases in an agreement with Japan
The next target of Chinese regulation may be ride-hailing companies as 11 of them were invited to a meeting.
Watch for surprises in the initial jobless claims and the factory Orders at 14:30 and 16:00 respectively and still any comments from the US central bankers or also Europe regarding the high inflation. The ECB could well issue a statement that they view the current inflation as temporary or transitory, as a dovish statement to reign in Weidman.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
2 Sep 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Trade Balance G&S (A$) | Jul | 10,200M |
2 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Austria | GDP Growth QQ Final | Q2 | |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output MM | Jul | -0.7% |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | Industrial Output YY | Jul | 1.8% |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | International Trade $ | Jul | -70.9B |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 28 Aug, w/e | 345k |
2 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Trade Balance C$ | Jul | 1.70B |
2 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Factory Orders MM | Jul | 0.3% |
3 Sep 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 03:45 | China (Mainland) | Caixin Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | CPI MM | Aug | 0.60% |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Serv PMI | Aug | 56.4 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:50 | France | Markit Comp PMI | Aug | 55.9 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Services PMI | Aug | 61.5 |
3 Sep 2021 | 09:55 | Germany | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | 60.6 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Serv Final PMI | Aug | 59.7 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | 59.5 |
3 Sep 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Reserve Assets Total | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Non-Farm Payrolls | Aug | 728k |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Unemployment Rate | Aug | 5.2% |
3 Sep 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Average Earnings YY | Aug | 4.0% |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Services PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:00 | Brazil | Markit Composite PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Final PMI | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Svcs PMI Final | Aug | |
3 Sep 2021 | 16:00 | United States | ISM N-Mfg PMI | Aug | 61.8 |
6 Sep 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Industrial Orders MM | Jul |
(Refinitiv)
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