Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew September 2 - 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Bundesbank Hawkish - Nonfarm Dovish?


Good Morning

Markets are in a bit of a limbo ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll tomorrow as the next impulse on US monetary policy. The APD Employment figure came rather disappointing yesterday at 374k vs 613k expected. The Nonfarm payroll is expected at 750k but with a fairly large variance. High estimate is 1027 and the low 375

As expected, after the high EU inflation data, Bundesbank President Weidmann became vocal stating “The first P in PEPP stands for pandemic, not permanent, and for a good reason” urging near term tapering.

Equities remain high but are slightly lower over night with the US 30 at 35280, the US500 at 4522 and the US tech 100 at 15614. The Germany 30 is 15790. On the weak US data and Jens Weidmann, USD weakens and EUR gains, EURUSD trades at 1.1840 after a high of 1.1856, Gold trades 1813 and Silver 24.17. Bitcoin is near the 50k again, currently 49500 and Ethereum 3757.

Manufacturing PMIs from Asia show that the supply chain constraints are becoming worse and will cause production and shipping delays in Q3.

Apple will it would loosen the rules for certain in-app purchases in an agreement with Japan

The next target of Chinese regulation may be ride-hailing companies as 11 of them were invited to a meeting.

Watch for surprises in the initial jobless claims and the factory Orders at 14:30 and 16:00 respectively and still any comments from the US central bankers or also Europe regarding the high inflation. The ECB could well issue a statement that they view the current inflation as temporary or transitory, as a dovish statement to reign in Weidman.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

2 Sep 2021

03:30

Australia

Trade Balance G&S (A$)

Jul

10,200M

2 Sep 2021

09:00

Austria

GDP Growth QQ Final

Q2

2 Sep 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output MM

Jul

-0.7%

2 Sep 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output YY

Jul

1.8%

2 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

International Trade $

Jul

-70.9B

2 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

28 Aug, w/e

345k

2 Sep 2021

14:30

Canada

Trade Balance C$

Jul

1.70B

2 Sep 2021

16:00

United States

Factory Orders MM

Jul

0.3%

3 Sep 2021

02:30

Japan

Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

09:00

Turkey

CPI MM

Aug

0.60%

3 Sep 2021

09:50

France

Markit Serv PMI

Aug

56.4

3 Sep 2021

09:50

France

Markit Comp PMI

Aug

55.9

3 Sep 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Services PMI

Aug

61.5

3 Sep 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

60.6

3 Sep 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Final PMI

Aug

59.7

3 Sep 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

59.5

3 Sep 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Reserve Assets Total

Aug

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Aug

728k

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Unemployment Rate

Aug

5.2%

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Average Earnings YY

Aug

4.0%

3 Sep 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Composite PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Final

Aug

3 Sep 2021

16:00

United States

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Aug

61.8

6 Sep 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Orders MM

Jul

(Refinitiv)

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