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Latest news from #SaxoStrats
FX Update: Digesting the FOMC reaction.
The market has made a significant adjustment in the wake of the FOMC meeting last week, but the action at the start of this week suggests that any follow-on move from here could be fitful, as we have a long few months to watch data develop and as the Fed could push back against over-interpretation of what happened last week. Elsewhere, the Swedish krona is calm even as the government has fallen and HUF traders are gearing up for the first rate hike in Europe since the pandemic at the Hungarian central bank meeting tomorrow.
Fixed income market: the week ahead
The message coming from the bond market is clear: a new tightening cycle has begun, but it won't last for long. The short part of the yield curve rises because the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates in money markets. Nevertheless, plunging yields in the long part of the curve signal that a lingering economy might force the central bank's hand to turn back on its hawkish stance. We expect the yield curve to continue to bear-flatten this week amid Powell's speech tomorrow and the release of personal consumption expenditures data on Thursday. This week's 2-, 5- and 7-year US Treasury auctions will be pivotal as weak demand might reveal that the market is expecting earlier interest rate hikes than what the Fed signalled. We anticipate the 2s10s and 5s30s spreads to fall to test their support at 100bps. The Bank of England will most likely keep monetary policies unchanged and reiterate that inflation will be transitory. However, in the long run, Gilts will remain vulnerable to yields rises in the US and growing inflationary pressures.
Podcast: A week for taking stock after post-FOMC trauma
Today we review the trauma that has unfolded across markets in the wake of last week's FOMC meeting, with equities feeling considerable heat on Friday and a vicious yield-curve flattening requiring an explanation, although at this point we may have more questions than answers. We also look at the impact in commodities, in FX, where a steep JPY rally has emerged, the macro and earnings calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Market Quick Take - June 21, 2021
US equities suffered a broad sell-off on Friday, with volatility possibly aggravated by the expiration of many futures and options contracts and in the wake of hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed president James Bullard. US long yields have collapsed as the market prices in higher rates at the front-end of the curve, a sign of the shock administered by the hawkish turn from the Fed at the FOMC last Wednesday.
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