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Latest news from #SaxoStrats
WCU: Energy crisis fuels commodity rally despite growth concerns
The month-long run-up in commodity prices shows no sign of easing with the main engine continuing to be the global energy crisis and its direct impact on other sectors, not least the energy-intensive industrial metal sector. Shortages of fuel leading to record-high prices has forced reductions in metal production from China to Europe, thereby exacerbating price gains for several key metals, not least copper after the LME came close to running out of deliverable stocks. Gold and silver also pushing higher as surging breakeven yields keep real yields suppressed.
FX Update: How will FX react to the realization that stagflation has arrived?
It is easy for commodity currencies to advance strongly when only the inflationary component of stagflation is in play, but what happens across FX if risk sentiment starts to consider the outlook for sharply weaker growth, especially if yields rise further? Key tests lie ahead on that account for the most yield-sensitive currency the Japanese yen, as well as classically pro-cyclical commodity currencies.
French Election Update : The center consolidates around Emmanuel Macron
The 2022 French presidential election is still far away. In recent weeks, an unexpected Trump-inspired candidate, Eric Zemmour, has surged in polls. He represents a direct threat to the candidacy of the far-right leader Marine Le Pen. In contrast, president Emmanuel Macron is still miles ahead of the pack. The center seems to consolidate around him. This is detrimental to the candidacy of the former Sarkozy minister Xavier Bertrand. The election is finally full of surprises. The race for the second place is more open than ever, in our view.
Stagflation is already here.
Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen who takes us through the evidence that stagflation has arrived with sustained higher prices over the horizon while real growth is cratering. We also delve into the copper market, the outlook for a number of currencies, a laundry list of currencies reporting supply chain issues, why yields are headed higher and why the stock market has the backdrop wrong here. Hosting today's pod is John J. Hardy.
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