Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew September 2 - 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Bundesbank Hawkish - Nonfarm Dovish?


Good Morning

Markets are in a bit of a limbo ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll tomorrow as the next impulse on US monetary policy. The APD Employment figure came rather disappointing yesterday at 374k vs 613k expected. The Nonfarm payroll is expected at 750k but with a fairly large variance. High estimate is 1027 and the low 375

As expected, after the high EU inflation data, Bundesbank President Weidmann became vocal stating “The first P in PEPP stands for pandemic, not permanent, and for a good reason” urging near term tapering.

Equities remain high but are slightly lower over night with the US 30 at 35280, the US500 at 4522 and the US tech 100 at 15614. The Germany 30 is 15790. On the weak US data and Jens Weidmann, USD weakens and EUR gains, EURUSD trades at 1.1840 after a high of 1.1856, Gold trades 1813 and Silver 24.17. Bitcoin is near the 50k again, currently 49500 and Ethereum 3757.

Manufacturing PMIs from Asia show that the supply chain constraints are becoming worse and will cause production and shipping delays in Q3.

Apple will it would loosen the rules for certain in-app purchases in an agreement with Japan

The next target of Chinese regulation may be ride-hailing companies as 11 of them were invited to a meeting.

Watch for surprises in the initial jobless claims and the factory Orders at 14:30 and 16:00 respectively and still any comments from the US central bankers or also Europe regarding the high inflation. The ECB could well issue a statement that they view the current inflation as temporary or transitory, as a dovish statement to reign in Weidman.

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

2 Sep 2021

03:30

Australia

Trade Balance G&S (A$)

Jul

10,200M

2 Sep 2021

09:00

Austria

GDP Growth QQ Final

Q2

2 Sep 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output MM

Jul

-0.7%

2 Sep 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output YY

Jul

1.8%

2 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

International Trade $

Jul

-70.9B

2 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

28 Aug, w/e

345k

2 Sep 2021

14:30

Canada

Trade Balance C$

Jul

1.70B

2 Sep 2021

16:00

United States

Factory Orders MM

Jul

0.3%

3 Sep 2021

02:30

Japan

Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

09:00

Turkey

CPI MM

Aug

0.60%

3 Sep 2021

09:50

France

Markit Serv PMI

Aug

56.4

3 Sep 2021

09:50

France

Markit Comp PMI

Aug

55.9

3 Sep 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Services PMI

Aug

61.5

3 Sep 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

60.6

3 Sep 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Final PMI

Aug

59.7

3 Sep 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

59.5

3 Sep 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Reserve Assets Total

Aug

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Aug

728k

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Unemployment Rate

Aug

5.2%

3 Sep 2021

14:30

United States

Average Earnings YY

Aug

4.0%

3 Sep 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Services PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Composite PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Final PMI

Aug

3 Sep 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Final

Aug

3 Sep 2021

16:00

United States

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Aug

61.8

6 Sep 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Orders MM

Jul

(Refinitiv)

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.