Morning Brew March 23 2026

Good Morning,

The war in Iran is not cooling down and is driving worries about inflation higher. It is all about the longer-term impact of the conflict—yields keep surging on expectations that inflation will rise due to high energy costs and supply chain issues.  There seems to be no quick way out of the war, and the IEA warns of a prolonged negative impact.

US 10-year yields rose to the highest level since August, reaching 4.41%. The European benchmark rose above 3% for the first time since the Euro crisis in 2011, and the UK hit levels not seen since the global financial crisis (5%). Swiss 10s remain at a modest 0.36%.

This morning, the next likely central bank actions are hikes by the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Australia at meetings at the end of April.

The fear behind the move caused risk sentiment to take a severe beating. Gold suffered its worst week since 1983, and equities fell broadly. The USD was relatively stable in the USD Index, as the rise in yields was universal and there was no shift in the interest differential. This morning, gold is at 4168 and silver at 61.70.

Oil is at 112 in the UK line and 100 in the US, and the USD Index is 99.65. EURUSD is 1.1525, Cable 1.3285, and USD near 160. EURCHF is holding at 0.91, and Bitcoin at 67,500.

The GER40 is trading at 22,000 this morning, the US 500 at 6,460, and the Japan 225 at 51,000. Since the Iran war started, the S&P 500 has fallen 6%, the Nasdaq has lost 5.3%, and the Dow has fallen 8%. The GER40 has given up 12% and the Nikkei 13.5%. The Dow and the S&P have now recorded four consecutive weeks of losses.

On Friday, Nvidia and Tesla lost over 3% each. Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft were all down about 2%. Super Micro Computer fell 33% after three people associated with the company were charged with smuggling AI technology to China.

On Friday, 27.5 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 20.1 billion. This was driven not only by market moves but also by the quarterly expiry.

Three key questions from here are:

• How to end the conflict in Iran in a sensible way
• What will the long-term impact be for inflation and overall supply chain issues?
• Will there be any real consequences in Europe and Asia to try to limit the dependency on the Middle East?

The outrageous prediction by Katrin comes to mind, calling for a massive Swiss investment into alternative energy: the fallout from the war could make it come true. Switzerland's Green Revolution: CHF 30 Billion Initiative by 2050 | Saxo Bank Switzerland

• Since the Iran war started, the S&P 500 has fallen 6%, the Nasdaq has lost 5.3%, and the Dow has fallen 8%. The Dow and the S&P have now recorded four consecutive weeks of losses.

• US allows 30-day sale of Iran oil at sea in bid to tame prices
• Cuban power grid collapses for second time in a week amid US oil blockade
• Trump threatens Iran with power plant strikes over Hormuz oil blockade
• Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in a staff memo on Friday the airline is preparing for oil to rise as high as $175 a barrel and remain above $100 until the end of 2027

On Wednesday, we are hosting a webinar with Ole and John on the impact of the war. Feel free to join—the last one was a great success and helped make sense of the topic.

War in Iran: Navigating Market Uncertainty

Date: Wed, 03/25/2026

Your time: 1:00 PM CET

Host: John J. Hardy - Global Head of Macro Strategy and Ole S. Hansen - Head of Commodity Strategy

Monday, March 23, 2026

EU Consumer Confidence, Australia PMI

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Japan CPI, Global PMI

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Australia CPI, UK CPI, Germany IFO, US Import Prices

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Japan PPI, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, March 27, 2026

UK Retail Sales, University of Michigan