Market Quick Take - Cooler CPI lifts chipmakers as Brent extends its run - 13 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: US inflation cooled to 3.4% and left the rate debate broadly where it stood
• Equities: Chipmakers carried a benign inflation print while Cisco's beat-and-raise was faded after hours
• Volatility: Event premium drained from the front of the volatility curve while longer-dated cover barely moved
• Digital Assets: Miners outran a quiet spot tape as attention turned to Friday's SEC vote
• Commodities: Corn jumps on yield cut as hot weather bites, while gold and oil take a breather
• Fixed Income: US long-dated yields remained near cycle highs, short-dated yield dipped slightly after the US CPI release.
• Currencies: USD edges higher after in-line CPI data. EURCHF hits new high for the year on weak CHF. SEK sharply lower.

Macro

• US inflation slowed to 3.4% y/y in July from 3.5% as expected, easing Fed rate-hike bets, as energy pressures eased. Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m, with shelter and food both up 0.1%, while core CPI increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y (from 2.6%), all in line with expectations.
• Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi said that her government supports a near-term BoJ rate hike, according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg.
• Japan’s producer prices rose 7.2% y/y in July, slightly below 7.3% in June and 7.4% expected. On the month, prices edged up 0.1% after a revised 0.5% gain, the weakest increase in five months.
• Germany’s inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y in July from 2.3%, driven by an 8.3% jump in energy and higher motor fuel costs after tax relief ended. Services inflation eased to 2.9%, food stayed at 0.4%, core dipped to 2.4%, and CPI rose 0.8% m/m; EU-harmonized inflation also reached 2.8%.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0600 – UK 2Q GDP
• 0600 – UK June Trade and Industrial Production
• 0800 – Norway Rate Decision
• 0900 – Eurozone June Industrial Production
• 1230 – US July PPI
• 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• 1700 – US to sell USD 25 billion 30-year Bonds

Earnings events

Earnings highlights for the rest of the week:

• Thursday: Applied Materials, Brookfield Corporation, Netease, Nu Holdings, RWE, AP Moller, Adyen, Orsted

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: US equities closed mostly higher as the in-line CPI print eased rate-hike fears. The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to 7,748.50, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.74% to 29,742.60 and a one-month high, and the Russell 2000 added 0.61%, while the Dow was flat at 53,775.39. The index move hides a wide split: semiconductors carried the gain, Nvidia up 3.03% and AMD up 1.82%, while Meta fell 3.38% and Microsoft 2.26%. Earnings drove the rest. Cisco beat on both lines and raised its AI infrastructure order forecast to USD 9 billion from USD 5 billion, then fell around 4% after hours to 118.8 and held the loss. CoreWeave surged 19.2% on a USD 104 billion backlog and Lumentum rallied 13.6%, while Cerebras fell 16% on a double miss and Coherent slid 8% after hours on soft guidance. In our view the market paid up for the pure AI infrastructure names and faded the incumbents regardless of the print.
• Europe: European equities edged lower as renewed Middle East tension overshadowed the benign US inflation backdrop. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% to 659.48, snapping a seven-day winning streak, with the DAX down 0.2% to 26,331.07, the CAC 40 off 0.5% to 8,674.94, the FTSE 100 down 0.1% to 10,833.15 and the SMI weakest at 14,449.47, down 0.9%. SAP fell 2.6% and Prosus 5.9%, the two largest declines in the index, while ABN Amro rose as much as 6.3% to a record high on a Q2 beat and guidance raise and Vestas jumped roughly 19.7% after lifting its full-year margin guidance.
• Asia: The semiconductor rally has extended into a second session. Korea's Kospi surged a further 3.71% to 6,823.27 this morning, after Wednesday's roughly 3% gain on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and Japan's Nikkei rose 1.74% to 68,702.12. The Hang Seng steadied at 25,485.08, up 0.18%, after lagging on Wednesday as hedge funds cut China exposure to a five-year low, with net allocation at 6% in July. Mainland China firmed, the China A50 up 0.74%, while Australia's ASX 200 slipped 0.30%. Tencent beat on revenue at CNY 204.78 billion but missed on profit as capital expenditure rose 65% from the prior quarter.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 14.55 | VIX FUTURES: 18.10 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (136.54) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~07:31 CET

• The in-line CPI print drained event premium across the curve. VIX fell 4.8% to 14.55, its lowest since 9 January, but the collapse was concentrated at the front: VIX1D dropped 24.4% to 9.46 and VIX9D 11.4% to 11.09. VXN (Nasdaq Volatility) fell 6.3% to 20.97.
• The cash curve is steeply in contango, 9.46 at one day against 18.53 at three months, with the front VIX future at 18.10. Cross-asset vol eased in step: MOVE fell 7.5% to 72.09 and OVX 4.8% to 52.34, while SKEW held elevated at 136.54. SPX options imply 0.43% for today's expiry and 0.62% into Friday.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~63,859 (+0.69%) | ETHEREUM ~1,896 (+0.97%) | IBIT 35.89 (-0.14%) | ETHA 14.16 (-0.14%) | AS OF ~07:31 CET

• Crypto firmed modestly overnight with the majors up under a point and DVOL easing to 35.65. The listed proxies told a sharper story: IREN surged 9.9% and CleanSpark 5.7%, tracking the neocloud earnings that lifted chipmakers, while Strategy fell 1.3% and the spot ETFs were flat. Spot bitcoin funds took in only USD 4.9 million.
• The SEC votes Friday on Regulation Crypto, which would create an investment-contract safe harbour for tokens whose networks run autonomously. The Senate left for recess without advancing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, pushing market-structure legislation to September.

Commodities

• Grains: The BCOM Grains Index jumped 3% on Wednesday, led by a 4.6% rally in corn after the USDA lowered its 2026 yield estimate to 180.7 bushels per acre from 183 bpa a month ago, reflecting the impact of hot weather on America’s largest crop. Adding to the broader strength across grains, wheat futures rose 3% after Ukraine attacked a key Russian grain port, adding to concerns about export flows from the Black Sea region.
• Oil futures traded lower following six consecutive sessions of gains after Brent encountered resistance around USD 90, with traders waiting for the next Middle East-related headline. Hopes for progress in talks between the US and Iran remain limited as both sides continue to harden their positions, with President Trump claiming the US has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz. In their latest monthly reports, both the IEA and EIA raised their estimates for 2026 demand destruction, helping explain why crude prices remain relatively muted despite six months of disrupted supply. Meanwhile, US crude inventories surged by 17.4 million barrels, the largest increase since 2023, driven by a jump in imports and continued releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
• Precious metals: Spot gold closed above USD 4,400 for the first time in two months on Wednesday after in-line US CPI data eased concerns about further rate hikes. During Asian trading today, gold briefly reached USD 4,450 before retreating as traders booked profits ahead of the 200-day moving average, which is likely to provide resistance around USD 4,500. Gold ETFs added holdings for a fifth consecutive session, pointing to renewed investor appetite alongside a pickup in central bank purchases, notably from China.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries yields churned sideways to slightly slower as the US July CPI data came in exactly in line with the expectations for a small drop in the core YoY number to 2.5%. An auction of 10-year treasury notes saw solid demand, if slightly less demand than the previous two auctions. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield ended Wednesday less than two basis points lower, but fell another two basis points overnight into Thursday, trading 4.18%, only three basis points above the multi-week lows of 4.15%. The benchmark 10-year yield ended Wednesday almost unchanged near 4.69% after dipping intraday below 4.65%, and was trading 4.68% early Thursday.
• Japan’s government bonds yield curve steepened slightly. Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi said that the government supports an earlier BoJ rate hike, which interestingly did little to boost short-dated Japanese yields, as the market still sees odds of a BoJ hike at the mid-September BoJ meeting at around 75%. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield was almost unchanged Thursday, still near the high of the cycle at 1.645%, while the 10-year JGB yield rose two basis points to almost 2.88%, nearing the multi-decade highs from July at 2.90%.

Currencies

• The US dollar was slightly firmer after the US July CPI release was in-line with expectations Wednesday. EURUSD dipped toward 1.1520 after a 1.1563 high and AUDUSD fell back to just below 0.7050 by early Thursday after a probe just above 0.7090 in the wake of the US CPI release Wednesday.
• Prime Minister Takaichi’s statement in favour of earlier BoJ hikes only offered the JPY modest support from near intraday lows Thursday, with USDJPY still trading near 159.35 after a 159.49 high earlier in the session.
• The lowest yielding major currency, the Swiss franc, weakened on Wednesday, with EURCHF hitting new highs for this year above 0.9380 early Thursday before finding resistance. Likewise, the Swedish krone fell sharply on Wednesday, perhaps getting punished for Sweden’s low policy rate. EURSEK rose from near 11.00 earlier in the day to close neaer 11.05, only about a half percent below the 11-month high near 11.115.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis