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Nvidia earnings: can it keep the crown?
Ruben Dalfovo
Investment Strategist
Key takeaways
- Nvidia’s print is a market event, not just a stock
- Results hinge on data-center demand, Blackwell timing, and China sales rebound
- Keep it simple: price the business, not the buzz. Guard your position size
A strong compounder, but the AI bar is high
Nvidia reports its quarterly earnings results tomorrow, Wednesday, 27 August, after U.S. close. Expectations are high after a rapid run in AI spending. Consensus sees about USD 46 billion in revenue and USD 1.00 in EPS, both up 50%+ year on year. Some forecasts are higher—near USD 48 billion and USD 1.06. Analyst stance is strong: roughly 9 in 10 rate it a ‘Buy’. The average 12-month target price sits around USD 190–220, with some calls near USD 240.
Nvidia is now the largest weight in the S&P 500 at roughly 8.0%, so its guidance can sway broad portfolios. Options markets flag elevated implied volatility around the print—a familiar pattern for Nvidia. Long-term holders should focus on durability of demand, margins, and execution on new products rather than the hour-to-hour tape.
The possible scenarios:
- Base: solid data-center growth. Blackwell on schedule. Margins steady. Market reaction: calm to positive.
- Bull: bigger orders and faster Blackwell. Stronger margins. Market reaction: AI winners rally.
- Bear: China or timing disappoints. Margins soften. Market reaction: de-risking across chips and cloud.
Why this print moves markets
Nvidia has become the heartbeat of the AI trade. Its chips and networking gear power cloud training and inference at companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. When Nvidia guides up, confidence ripples across semis, equipment, memory, and the hyperscalers. When it wobbles, the air comes out of the whole complex. For retail investors holding broad ETFs, Nvidia’s weight means index returns lean on this single name more than usual. That concentration raises both upside torque and downside risk—exactly why position sizing and time horizon matter more than guessing the headline EPS. Either way, the lesson is the same: own great businesses at sensible sizes and let compounding work.
What to watch
Data-center engine. This is the core. Last quarter total revenue was USD 44.1 billion. Watch orders from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta and any colour on networking and software attach. Durable growth beats one-off spikes.
Blackwell rollout. Management has said the next-gen Blackwell family stays on track for 2025, with Rubin targeted for 2026. Timelines and yields decide whether Nvidia maintains its performance lead and pricing power.
Margins and mix. Gross margin dipped last quarter due to an H20 charge. Listen for normalization back toward the low-70s excluding one-offs, and for any shift in product or software mix that defends margins as supply improves.
China exposure. The new U.S. licences allow H20-class sales to resume, with a 15% revenue-share to Washington. Management’s framing of timing and materiality matters. Policy can change. Treat China contribution as a swing factor, not a base case.
Index and portfolio impact. With 8% S&P weight, a big move in Nvidia’s shares can tug index funds and tech ETFs. Even if you do not own NVDA, you likely own its influence.
The long-term investor lens
Use three checks—moat, per-share value, discipline—and read the signals. A widening moat shows up in performance lead, developer lock-in, and ecosystem breadth; Blackwell shipping on time and a clean Rubin setup keep that edge. Per-share value means recurring demand and healthy margins through cycles, not one quarter’s beat; watch data-center orders, networking attach, and cash generation. Discipline lives in inventory, capex, buybacks, and pricing—confidence without over-building supply. Cross-check the customer side: do hyperscalers lift 2026 capex or sweat assets longer? Treat China as volatile and size positions accordingly.
Investor playbook
- Anchor to market reality. Use peer comps, fresh IPO/separation prints, and precedents to sanity-check multiples.
- Set guardrails. Define a max position size, a valuation ceiling, and a rough time-to-thesis.
- Avoid heroics. Long-term holders do not need to trade the print to win the decade.
- Know your look-through. Check your ETF weight in NVDA and key suppliers before the call.
One night, big echo: what’s next
Nvidia’s results will test whether AI demand stays intense and whether the firm can extend its lead as Blackwell ships. The main drivers are hyperscaler orders and execution on new platforms; the key risks are policy shifts around China and a margin slip as supply loosens. Over the next few weeks, watch shipment timing, gross-margin guidance, and any colour on future product cadence. Own great businesses at sensible sizes, let time do the lifting—and never mistake a loud quarter for a lasting edge.
This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..