21goldM

Trump tariffs, copper chaos, and the metals that still matter

Commodities
Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points:

  • Trump's tariff flip on copper roiled markets, wiping out a record NY premium and leaving U.S. warehouses oversupplied.
  • Precious metals paused after strong H1 gains, with silver and platinum narrowing the gap to gold.
  • Copper’s long-term outlook remains bullish, supported by rising demand from electrification, AI, and data center growth.
  • Weak U.S. jobs data reignites rate cut expectations, boosting the case for renewed investor demand in gold and silver.


I returned from my summer break to find that President Trump continues to wield considerable influence over global markets, including commodities. In July, attention centered on intense trade negotiations ahead of the self-imposed August 1 deadline. While a framework deal was reached between the U.S. and EU, and talks with China continued ahead of the mid-August expiry of a 90-day tariff truce, other U.S. trading partners struggled to secure agreements.

Despite these negotiations, markets experienced an eerie calm, allowing U.S. equities to extend their rally. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit record highs, supported by surprisingly strong U.S. economic data. That strength delayed rate cut expectations, lifted Treasury yields, and gave the dollar a modest boost after months of weakness.

Precious metals spent July consolidating their first-half gains. Silver and platinum extended their rallies, regaining some ground versus gold, which continues to trade in a narrow range after hitting a record high of $3,500 in April. Platinum briefly reached a year-to-date gain of 61%, while silver came close to $40—its highest since 2011, though still below the all-time peak of $50.

5olh_0
YTD performances across key metals

Also supporting silver and platinum early in the month was a surge in High-Grade copper prices in New York, which hit a record $5.8955/lb on July 8. This followed President Trump’s surprise suggestion of a 50% tariff on copper imports—double what markets had priced in. The remark drove the premium over LME copper in London to a record 34%, sparking a rush to ship copper into the U.S. ahead of the deadline.

That trade unraveled last week when Trump, in a sudden reversal, announced that refined copper—traded on futures exchanges—would be excluded from the tariff until at least January 2027. The New York premium collapsed within minutes, leaving traders nursing losses and U.S. warehouses with copper inventories at a 21-year high. With imports set to dry up, U.S. prices may now fall below global benchmarks to clear the excess.

5olh_3
The tariff related impact on US copper versus LME copper prices

While New York copper grabbed headlines, LME copper remained relatively stable, trading around $9,550 per ton ($4.33/lb). Our medium- to long-term bullish view remains unchanged. The tariff reversal only underscores copper’s strategic role in the global energy and digital transition. Demand is expected to rise sharply due to the electrification of transport, industrial reshoring, and rapid expansion of AI-driven data centers.

Supply, meanwhile, remains constrained by underinvestment and recent disruptions—including a mining accident in Chile. As a result, copper prices are likely to remain volatile but biased higher, supported by both near-term momentum and long-term structural tailwinds. It is increasingly becoming the defining commodity of the energy and digital age.

Precious Metals: Focus Shifts to Tariffs and Fed Policy

After a stellar first half, investment metals entered a consolidation phase in July, with some volatility triggered by copper’s sharp moves. Gold has traded sideways for four months, allowing silver and platinum to catch up. With year-to-date gains near 27% for gold and silver and nearly 50% for platinum, investors are naturally asking: is the rally over?

We don’t believe so. Recent data weakness in the U.S. has reopened the door for Fed rate cuts. Friday’s dismal jobs report, including sharp downward revisions to prior months, has led markets to almost fully price in a cut at the next FOMC meeting on 17 September, with more expected into 2026. The effective Fed funds rate is now seen 125 basis points lower by next September.

5olh_2
Fed funds and the expected change by December 2025 and September 2026

The key drivers that have propelled metals higher in recent years remain intact, and additional tailwinds could emerge in the second half. Most notably, the mentioned prospect of lower U.S. interest rates could reignite demand, especially for metal-backed ETFs by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals, compared to short-dated government bonds.

To understand gold’s enduring appeal—and by extension, that of silver and platinum—it’s important to recognise what sets these metals apart. Precious metals are politically neutral, unlike sovereign bonds or fiat currencies. They are universally recognised as a store of value, not tied to the creditworthiness of any nation, which is why central banks are increasingly allocating to gold as a core reserve asset.

5olh_4
Gold (XAUUSD) remains rangebound between USD 3245 and USD 3440
5olh_5
Silver (XAGUSD) reversed lower after finding resistance ahead of USD 40. Key support remains the area around USD 35
5olh_6
Platinum's (XPTUSD) recent correction ran out of steam at USD 1260 with USD 1345 now offering some resistance
Related articles/content             
4 Aug 2025: COT Report: Speculators cut metals and grain exposure ahead of copper rout
9 July 2025: NY copper surges on 50 Trump tariff threat
8 July 2025: Gold silver platinum take a timeout after strong first half
7 July 2025: Crude prices steady as OPEC fast-tracks output hike
3 July 2025: Commodities Foundations set for the next bull run
30 June 2025: COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-year high, crude slump rattles speculators
27 June 2025: Commodities weekly Broad reversal led by energy copper and platinum stand tall
25 June 2025: Copper extends rally on tariff-related supply squeeze
24 June 2025: Oil tumbles as Hormuz risk premium evaporates following symbolic retaliation and ceasefire deal
23 June 2025: Oil market on edge as Hormuz risk premium builds
20 June 2025: Commodities weekly Strength in energy and grains offsets pause in precious metals
19 June 2025: Wheat rise on short covering and weather woes but fundamentals still lacking
18 June 2025: Commodities strengthen into midyear as demand for hard assets heat up
16 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sell dollars, buy crude ahead of Middle East escalation
13 June 2025: Commodities weekly Geopolitics lift crude and gold
12 June 2025: Brent crude briefly breaches 70 amid Iran attack threats
10 June 2025: COT Report: Metals, energy demand offset by broad Ag selling
6 June 2025: Commodities weekly Gold stalls spotlight shifts to cheaper silver and platinum
4 June 2025: Crude oil holds firm despite mounting supply glut fears
3 June 2025: Gold and silver break key levels as copper eyes tariff decision
2 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sold crude ahead of OPEC hike
28 May 2025: Breakout or breakdown Gold silver and platinum face pivotal resistance zones
26 May 2025: COT Report: Hedge funds return to gold; elevated grains short
23 May 2025: Commodities weekly Diverging supply trends boost platinum weigh on crude
21 May 2025: Israel attack risks add modest risk premium to crude prices
20 May 2025: As gold pauses is platinum ready to shine for investors
19 May 2025: COT Report: Speculators show measured reaction to trade truce
16 May 2025: Commodities Weekly - Gold retreats Procyclicals rise amid trade truce optimism
14 May 2025: Crude stays range-bound despite latest tariff-truce bounce

13 May 2025: Gold holds steady as tariff truce sparks silver rebound
12 May 2025: COT Report: Broad risk reduction seen ahead of easing trade tensions
9 May 2025: Commodities weekly Sentiment improves as trade tensions cool before talks
8 May 2025: Copper market navigates tariff uncertainty amid tight global supply
7 May 2025: Agriculture markets diverge as trade war weather and speculators reshape landscape
6 May 2025: Crude climbs as market digests OPEC hike and shale slowdown risks

6 May 2025: Gold rises as Chinese demand rebounds post-holiday
5 May 2025: 
COT Report: Dollar-selling persists; Crude length trimmed ahead of OPEC output hike
1 May 2025: 
Gold corrects sharply from record highs as Chinese demand pauses

Podcasts that include commodities focus:


2 July 2025: Three big questions in the week ahead
24 June 2025: Crude oil and USDJPY whiplash. Tesla fans ignore shaky debut
23 June 2025: Market quickly recovering from Operation Midnight Hammer
20 June 2025: Yep: NOK, wheat and Tesla in the same podcast.
13 June 2025: Geopolitics derails risk sentiment, but for how long?
6 June 2025: Silver rips as Musk-Trump bromance trips
28 May 2025: Nvidia to determine whether US stocks can achieve new highs
12 May 2025: As good as it gets on the trade news front
6 May 2025: 
Bears hang in at key levels as Palantir rides the retail whirlwind

More from the author             
This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Haftungsausschluss für Inhalte

Die Information auf dieser Website wird Ihnen von der Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG (“Saxo Bank”) ausschliesslich zu Ausbildungs-/Informationszwecken zur Verfügung gestellt. Die Information ist weder als Angebot noch als Empfehlung zur Tätigung einer Transaktion oder zur Inanspruchnahme einer bestimmten Dienstleistung zu verstehen, noch darf der Inhalt als Beratung anderer Art, beispielsweise steuerlicher oder rechtlicher Art, ausgelegt werden.

Wertschriftenhandel birgt Risiken. Die Verluste können die Einlagen auf Margin-Produkten übersteigen. Sie sollten verstehen wie unsere Produkte funktionieren und welche Risiken mit diesen einhergehen. Weiter sollten Sie abwägen, ob Sie es sich leisten können, ein hohes Risiko einzugehen, Ihr Geld zu verlieren.

Die Saxo Bank übernimmt keine Gewähr für die Richtigkeit, Vollständigkeit oder Nützlichkeit der bereitgestellten Informationen und ist nicht verantwortlich für Fehler, Auslassungen, Verluste oder Schäden, die sich aus der Verwendung solcher Informationen ergeben.

Der Inhalt dieser Website stellt Marketingmaterial dar und ist nicht das Ergebnis einer Finanzanalyse oder -forschung. Daher wurde es nicht gemäss den Richtlinien erstellt, die die Unabhängigkeit von Finanz-/Investmentforschung fördern sollen, und unterliegt keinem Verbot des Handels vor der Verbreitung von Finanz-/Investmentforschung.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Schweiz

Saxo kontaktieren

Region auswählen

Schweiz
Schweiz

Wertschriftenhandel birgt Risiken. Die Verluste können die Einlagen auf Margin-Produkten übersteigen. Sie sollten verstehen wie unsere Produkte funktionieren und welche Risiken mit diesen einhergehen. Weiter sollten Sie abwägen, ob Sie es sich leisten können, ein hohes Risiko einzugehen, Ihr Geld zu verlieren. Um Ihnen das Verständnis der mit den entsprechenden Produkten verbundenen Risiken zu erleichtern, haben wir ein allgemeines Risikoaufklärungsdokument und eine Reihe von «Key Information Documents» (KIDs) zusammengestellt, in denen die mit jedem Produkt verbundenen Risiken und Chancen aufgeführt sind. Auf die KIDs kann über die Handelsplattform zugegriffen werden. Bitte beachten Sie, dass der vollständige Prospekt kostenlos über die Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG oder den Emittenten bezogen werden kann.

Auf diese Website kann weltweit zugegriffen werden. Die Informationen auf der Website beziehen sich jedoch auf die Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG. Alle Kunden werden direkt mit der Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG zusammenarbeiten und alle Kundenvereinbarungen werden mit der Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG  geschlossen und somit schweizerischem Recht unterstellt.

Der Inhalt dieser Website stellt Marketingmaterial dar und wurde keiner Aufsichtsbehörde gemeldet oder übermittelt.

Sofern Sie mit der Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG Kontakt aufnehmen oder diese Webseite besuchen, nehmen Sie zur Kenntnis und akzeptieren, dass sämtliche Daten, welche Sie über diese Webseite, per Telefon oder durch ein anderes Kommunikationsmittel (z.B. E-Mail) der Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG übermitteln, erfasst bzw. aufgezeichnet werden können, an andere Gesellschaften der Saxo Bank Gruppe oder Dritte in der Schweiz oder im Ausland übertragen und von diesen oder der Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG gespeichert oder anderweitig verarbeitet werden können. Sie befreien diesbezüglich die Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG von ihren Verpflichtungen aus dem schweizerischen Bank- und Wertpapierhändlergeheimnis, und soweit gesetzlich zulässig, aus den Datenschutzgesetzen sowie anderen Gesetzen und Verpflichtungen zum Schutz der Privatsphäre. Die Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG hat angemessene technische und organisatorische Vorkehrungen getroffen, um diese Daten vor der unbefugten Verarbeitung und Offenlegung zu schützen und einen angemessenen Schutz dieser Daten zu gewährleisten.

Apple, iPad und iPhone sind Marken von Apple Inc., eingetragen in den USA und anderen Ländern. App Store ist eine Dienstleistungsmarke von Apple Inc.