Trump tariffs, copper chaos, and the metals that still matter

Also supporting silver and platinum early in the month was a surge in High-Grade copper prices in New York, which hit a record $5.8955/lb on July 8. This followed President Trump’s surprise suggestion of a 50% tariff on copper imports—double what markets had priced in. The remark drove the premium over LME copper in London to a record 34%, sparking a rush to ship copper into the U.S. ahead of the deadline.

That trade unraveled last week when Trump, in a sudden reversal, announced that refined copper—traded on futures exchanges—would be excluded from the tariff until at least January 2027. The New York premium collapsed within minutes, leaving traders nursing losses and U.S. warehouses with copper inventories at a 21-year high. With imports set to dry up, U.S. prices may now fall below global benchmarks to clear the excess.

While New York copper grabbed headlines, LME copper remained relatively stable, trading around $9,550 per ton ($4.33/lb). Our medium- to long-term bullish view remains unchanged. The tariff reversal only underscores copper’s strategic role in the global energy and digital transition. Demand is expected to rise sharply due to the electrification of transport, industrial reshoring, and rapid expansion of AI-driven data centers.

Supply, meanwhile, remains constrained by underinvestment and recent disruptions—including a mining accident in Chile. As a result, copper prices are likely to remain volatile but biased higher, supported by both near-term momentum and long-term structural tailwinds. It is increasingly becoming the defining commodity of the energy and digital age.

Precious Metals: Focus Shifts to Tariffs and Fed Policy

After a stellar first half, investment metals entered a consolidation phase in July, with some volatility triggered by copper’s sharp moves. Gold has traded sideways for four months, allowing silver and platinum to catch up. With year-to-date gains near 27% for gold and silver and nearly 50% for platinum, investors are naturally asking: is the rally over?

We don’t believe so. Recent data weakness in the U.S. has reopened the door for Fed rate cuts. Friday’s dismal jobs report, including sharp downward revisions to prior months, has led markets to almost fully price in a cut at the next FOMC meeting on 17 September, with more expected into 2026. The effective Fed funds rate is now seen 125 basis points lower by next September.

The key drivers that have propelled metals higher in recent years remain intact, and additional tailwinds could emerge in the second half. Most notably, the mentioned prospect of lower U.S. interest rates could reignite demand, especially for metal-backed ETFs by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals, compared to short-dated government bonds.

To understand gold’s enduring appeal—and by extension, that of silver and platinum—it’s important to recognise what sets these metals apart. Precious metals are politically neutral, unlike sovereign bonds or fiat currencies. They are universally recognised as a store of value, not tied to the creditworthiness of any nation, which is why central banks are increasingly allocating to gold as a core reserve asset.