Morning Brew November 13 2025

Good Morning,

US Shutdown is over after 43 days, the market impact is somewhat limited as this was widely expected. The S&P 500 rose 0.06%, the Nasdaq lost 0.26% while the Dow gained 0.68%. The Dow is now above 48.000! The GER40 looks on track for the all time high.

AMD gained  9% after data-center revenue target while other tech was under pressure: Palantir and Oracle lost close to 4%, Amazon and Telsa lost 2%. The Dow was supported by Goldman Sachs and United Health.

Yields and USD Index remain fairly stable at 4.09 and 99.48 respectively, EURUSD is 1.1585, GBPUSD 1.3110 and USDJPY 154.90. The Yen traded to an all-time low against the Euro at 179.50. Silver is at 54, looking to test the recent highs at 54.55 and Gold breaks the 4200.

Politics remain the spotlight as data is lacking:

The Whitehouse announced that the October inflation and jobless data may not be released, making life for the Fed rather complicated heading towards the December meeting. Susan Collins said she  sees a "relatively high bar" for additional easing in the near term, meaning she needs data for a further cut in December… The probability remains 2/3 in favor a cut for the moment

The White House is exploring new measures to curb the influence of proxy advisers which conservatives have for years complained push liberal-leaning views

New Emails released from the Epstein files yesterday implicate that Donald Trump 'knew about the girls', this could become a market moving event because DJT will often try to create a distraction when confronted with adverse media.

Guy Parmelin has arrived in Washington, underscoring expectations of a deal on the Swiss tariffs. The expectation is lowering it to 15% this week. Anything less would be a massive disappointment and would move Swiss shares and currency. Both have pre-empted the good news.

Charu took a look at the AI  Trade:

Charu : Hedging the AI hype: How investors are rebalancing portfolios as tech volatility rises

• Investors aren’t exiting AI, they’re balancing it: Investors worried about over-exposure to the AI theme are rotating into sectors with steadier earnings (healthcare, materials, financials, energy) and adding old-economy exposures as stabilisers.
• Portfolio construction is doing more work: Equal-weight indices, quality tilts, low-volatility factors, and simple options are helping reduce dependence on mega-cap AI leaders.
• Investors are blending equity rotation with alternative hedges: While equity tilts help reduce concentration risk, many are also adding precious metals and miners to create a broader cushion against market volatility.

Thursday November 13

• AU Employment data, UK GDP, US Initial Jobless claims,
• Walt Disney, JD.Com,

  Friday November 14

• China Retail sales, France CPI, EU GDP,