Morning Brew May 28 2026

Good morning.

There is renewed military action in the Middle East, which is worrying global markets. While negotiations are still ongoing, the US targeted Iranian drone operations, and Iran forced a ship to turn back from the strait.

It appears that Donald Trump wants a deal, but one that allows him to save face—rather a difficult setup. Until there is a formal agreement, uncertainty is likely to remain high due to the large number of often conflicting comments. As we approach 100 days of the t strait’s closure, expect supply chain issues to come to the forefront and inflation concerns to shift from fear to reality.

Today, we are expecting the key US personal consumption expenditures data. Higher fuel prices are expected to lift headline PCE to a three-year high of 3.8%, while core PCE is forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month to 3.3% year-on-year—far above the Fed’s 2% target. There is currently a 50/50 chance of another rate hike by year-end.

Markets are nervous, with oil up 3%, indexes around 1% lower than yesterday, the USD sharply higher, and yields up. EURUSD is below 1.16 at 1.1590, GBPUSD at 1.3377, and USDJPY at 159.60.

Gold is testing important support at the 200-day moving average; a break below could open the way toward 4300 and possibly 4100. Silver is below the rising trendline, so this looks like a key day. The June gold contract has first notice tomorrow, and we are heading into month-end.

Bitcoin is down 3% to 73k.

Snowflake soared 36% after reporting first-quarter results that beat expectations and raising its full-year forecast, while also expanding its collaboration with Amazon Web Services. Dell shares jumped 4.8% post-market after winning a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract. Marvell Technology initially fell 4% during its conference call but later reversed to gains of up to 8.9% after boosting its annual forecast and citing AI-fuelled demand. Salesforce dipped 1.1% in extended trading after its results and outlook were not seen as strong enough to erase concerns over AI-related disruption.

Akzo Nobel rallied 19.5% after rejecting a bid. BP fell 2.72% a day after announcing the removal of Chairman Albert Manifold.

Today, US data and developments around Iran will drive sentiment. The US releases key data at 14:30, and markets are hoping for good news from the Middle East…

Trade safely.

Thursday, May 28

EU Consumer Sentiment, US Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods Orders, GDP, New Home Sales
Best Buy, Kohl's, Dell, Costco

Friday, May 29
Japan CPI, Swiss KOF, European CPIs, US Chicago PMI

Monday, June 1
US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending

Tuesday, June 2
EU Inflation, US JOLTS Job Openings