Morning Brew March 9 2026

Good morning,

Service notice  Notice: The US are on Daylight Savings time, Time difference from CET  is only 5 hours to New York two weeks, stocks open at 14:30 CET and close at 21:00. Extended market hours are 12 -22,

Iran on Monday named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, signaling that hardliners remain firmly in charge, this caused oil  to rise as much as 25% before cooling off somewhat. Brent traded to near 118 before falling 10 USD, WTI rose more than 30! 

It will be rather curious to see if the MAGA support holds through higher energy prices and stocks trading lower.

The US 500 is seen 1.5% lower, the US 30 1.8%, the Japan 225 -5.5% and the GER40 -3%.  The USD Index is 99.35 as 10 year Yields rise to 4.20.  EURUSD is 1.1550, USDJPY 158.50 and GBPUSD 1.3320. While USDCHF rises to 0.7795, EURCHF is testing the important 0.90 level. We traded lower in the night.

Trump said on Saturday, the air campaign could make negotiations a moot point if all potential leaders of Iran are killed and the Iranian military is destroyed.

On Friday, we saw a double hit with oil prices surging by 12%. This jump was driven by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. In addition, the U.S. labor market data came weaker than feared with  unemployment rising to 4.4%.

Looking at the major indices, the Dow declined by 0.95%, the S&P 500 fell by 1.33%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.59%. For the week, the S&P 500 experienced its largest weekly percentage drop since mid-October, falling by a total of 2.02%. The Nasdaq was down 1.24%, while the Dow fell by a notable 3.01%. Similarly, the Russell 2000 recorded its biggest weekly percentage drop since early August. Investor anxiety was marked by a jump in the VIX, Wall Street's famous gauge, which increased by 5.74 points to 29.49.

In the sector-specific news, the S&P Passenger Airlines Index, tracking passenger carrier stocks, saw a decline of 4%. BlackRock faced a 7.1% drop after announcing it would limit withdrawals from a major private credit fund. On a more positive note, Marvell Technology had a robust session, closing up by 18.4% due to raised projections and positive outlooks.

Turning to currencies, the USD concluded the week at 98.85, with the euro at 1.1620 against the dollar and the pound at 1.3410. The USDJPY continued upward to 157.80. Precious metals looked promising with gold and silver ending the day in the green at 2170 and 84.33, respectively. EURCHF fell to 90.15 with anticipation building for the Swiss National Bank’s quarterly rate decision. Currently, there's a 90% consensus for no rate change, but if the CHF doesn’t stabilize, a rate cut might be considered. USDCHF settled at 0.7760.

As the Fed is also meeting next week, there are no Fed Speakers this week,

We are expecting the two important inflation measures for the US with the CPI as well as the Personal Consumption deflator but I am not sure how much attention will be given to them. The higher oil prices that started in March will be a  massive driver of inflation. If inflation in February is reported higher than expected, it could be important as it would mean the oil shock is added to an even higher base and limit the Fed`s ability to cut.

Monday, March 9, 2026

China CPI and PPI,. Germany CPI,
Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Japan GDP, China Trade, US Existing Home sales,

Earnings: NIO, Kohls, Oracle,
Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Germany Inflation., US CPI.
Thursday, March 12, 2026

Initial Jobless Claims, International Trade, Fed issues quarterly accounts

Earnings. Dicks, Dollar General, Adobe, Wheaton
Friday, March 13, 2026

UK GDP, France CPI, US PCE