Morning Brew March 5 2026

Good morning,

The war in Iran remains the key market driver:

A majority of the U.S. Senate on Wednesday backed President Trumps military campaign in Iran , voting to block a bipartisan resolution aiming to stop the air war and require that any hostilities against Iran be authorized by Congress.

Equity markets in Europe and the U.S. found hope from a pledge by Trump to provide protection to shippers and a New York Times report that Iranian intelligence had reached out to the CIA early in the war about a path towards ending it  KOSPI leads Asian market surge with 10% gain, the Nikkei is up 1,4% at 55060.

Concerns about energy supply continued to drive up oil prices. U.S. crude rose and is trading at 77.50, the British contract is at 84.20

Gold is 5140 and Silver 81.20. The Dollar remains strong as 10 year Yields are 4.12 this morning, the USD Index is at 99.14 EURUSD below 1.16, GBPUSD 1.33 and USDJPY 157.20. CHF showed slight strength after February's year-over-year CPI exceeded expectations at 0.1% (expected -0.1%). EURCHF declined  to 0.9058s, Swiss officials indicated a heightened readiness for currency intervention.

Bitcoin surged to above 70k and is trading at 72k this morning.

The Nasdaq climbed  1.3%, the  S&P rises 0.8%, and the Dow 0.5% The VIX  slipped to around 21, down roughly 10% on the day, this morning, US Indexes are 0.5% lower than yesterday the GER40 is trading at 24000 after 24200 Yesterday, the US Indexes are 0.5% lower than yesterday.

Moderna rose 16% after agreeing to pay $950 million to Genevant and Arbutus, settling a lawsuit over its Covid vaccine delivery tech.

All focus will remain on the Middle Est and any fallout from the war today, any indication on supply chain disruptions or indications or a regime change in Iran will move markets at any point in time. Important earnings are worth keeping an eye on.

In other News:

 China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%, emphasizing investment in high‑tech and strategic innovation to reinforce national security and self‑reliance.

 U.S. ISM Services PMI climbed to 56.1 (above expectations).

U.S. private payrolls increased by 63,000, led by education and healthcare (+58,000).

Eurozone producer prices rose 0.7% in January, reversing December’s decline.

A U.S. trade court ruled that the government must begin issuing potentially billions in tariff refunds to importers.

Europe faces a gas storage squeeze as the Iran conflict tightens energy supply conditions

Thursday, 5 March 2026

Sweden CPI, EU Retail Sales, US productivity Cost& Initial Jobless Claims,

Central banks / Speeches Bowman

Earnings – US

Costco Wholesale, JD.com, Kroger, Marvell Technology, Samsara, Pattern Energy, Ciena, GoPro, American Eagle, Victoria's Secret

Friday, 6 March 2026

US – Retail Sales Nonfarm Payrolls