Morning Brew March 20 2026

Good Morning. 

Yesterday was a bit of a wild day in oil, equities and precious metals. Central Banks took the backseat as there was no surprise whatsoever. All of them followed analyst expectations and stated they were monitoring the fallout of the middle east war closely for impact on growth and  inflation.

Attacks on energy facilities raised worries of higher oil for longer. It then became clear that there is a strong interest to end the engagement, as Israel stated Iran no longer had the capacity to enrich Uranium of build ballistic missiles.

The US 500 fell to 6575 yesterday before rising to 6630, 6602 now, Gold tested the 4500 yesterday, a key support level mentioned by Ole and rose to 4730 to now trade 4675, Silver fell to 65.40 rose 9 USD and is now 71.50.

Ole believes the latest price action has triggered systematic position reduction, as trend signals have deteriorated,  following the break below USD 5,000, amplified by a repricing of rate expectations and a firmer dollar.

US 10 year yields rose yesterday and are now 4.28, the USD Index fell to 99.41 with EURUSD 1.1560, GBPUSD 1.34 and USDJPY 158.40. The Swiss Franc cold retreat to 0.7890 against the USD and 0.9125 against the Euro.

Reuters reports, surging oil prices in physical markets - the trading place for oil on ships, rail cars or in storage tanks - have outpaced the already dizzying increases in benchmark futures markets, as refiners and traders across Asia and Europe are snapping up whatever barrels they can secure to plug the enormous supply gap caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Where we go from here – especially today – will largely depend on any developments in the middle east – it appears clear, the US and to a certain degree Israel are trying to end the engagement but lack an sensible way of achieving it. Knowing Donald Trumps way of politics, he may simply declare victory and end the engagement despite Iran not surrendering unconditionally as he had demanded.

Any negative news can tip the balance to the negative again. Without any key economic data today, traders will look for any clues for an end to the war.

In other news:

• The EU is looking at subsidies to ease the high energy cost
• Tesla is looking to purchase nearly USD 3 bio of Solar panels from China – is this an early move in a global more to replace fossile energy?
• US bank regulators proposed new rules easing large bank capital requirements.
• Unilever is  in talks to combine food business with McCormick
• The US Military stated there are no imminent plans to invade Cuba
• Novartis is purchasing a Breast cancer medication for app USD 3 billion from Synnovation Therapeutics

Trade safely today and expect a volatile day as nerves are raw after the strong moves yesterday and the lack of data opens the door to headline trading.

Friday, March 20, 2026

China Loan Rates, EU Trade Balance,

Monday March 23, 2026
EU Consumer Confidence, Australia PMI,