Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk-off Friday?
Good morning.
Risk-off Friday? Contradictions around Iran and renewed pressure in AI are weighing on sentiment this morning. After a strong session yesterday, Asian markets and global futures are broadly softer: the Kospi is down 7%, the Nikkei is off 1.6%, gold and silver are easing, oil is firmer, yields are steady for now, and the dollar is holding around 99.40, with EUR/USD at 1.1615 and USD/JPY at 159.95. Sterling is holding at 1.3430. Gold is at 4,450, silver at 72.75, and bitcoin is testing support around 63k.
Hezbollah has rejected a US-mediated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, even as Trump said the group had approached the White House about ending the fighting. On the US data side, employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, up from 83,387 in April and the highest May total since 2020. Eurozone retail sales fell 0.4% m/m in April after a 0.8% rise in March, with weakness in non-food and fuel offset only partly by a rise in food sales.
US markets finished mixed on Thursday. The Dow surged 875 points, or 1.7%, to a record close of 51,562, its 15th record close of 2026, led by healthcare and financials. The S&P 500 gained 0.4% to 7,593, its 10th gain in 11 sessions, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% as Broadcom sank 12% after disappointing AI chip guidance. After the close, Nasdaq 100 futures slipped a further 0.9%, Guidewire dropped 16%, and Lululemon fell 11% after slightly missing EPS expectations. Nike also slumped 15.5% to a decade low after warning on fourth-quarter sales.
The chip space was the one bright spot, with the PHLX semiconductor index up 2.82% for a second straight session. Meanwhile, Trump told Reuters the US will be “out of Iran pretty quickly” and could return for “spot hits” if needed. That keeps geopolitics in focus heading into today’s key US payrolls release at 14:30 CET, where consensus looks for 85,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.3% unemployment rate. A stronger print would likely push market expectations toward a higher Fed path.
Monday will be day 100 ir the Irean engagement and there seems to be no exit strategy besides hope and talk
Can passive flows such as auto-invest be the white knight once more?
Trade safely.
Friday, June 5
EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payrolls, Canada Employment
Monday, June 8
Japan GDP, Germany Industrial Orders
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