Morning Brew June 4 2026

Good morning.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire to end hostilities, the Trump administration said on Wednesday, boosting hopes for a broader deal to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 215 to 208 against continuing the war under President Trump, dealing a blow to the administration and sending a clear signal against further escalation.

SpaceX publicly set a $135 price for shares in its initial public offering on Wednesday, upending the longstanding Wall Street price-discovery process and underscoring Elon Musk’s determination to raise record sums on his own terms.

US private payrolls rose by 122,000 in May, the strongest gain since January 2025 and above expectations. Hiring was broad-based, led by education and health services as well as trade, transportation, and utilities, while natural resources, mining, and information lost jobs. Small firms added 67,000 jobs, large firms 40,000, and midsize firms 17,000. Pay growth held at 4.4% for job stayers and rose to 6.6% for job switchers. US factory orders rose 4.8% in April to $662.7 billion, the strongest increase in 11 months.

Indexes were hit by fears of a further escalation in the Middle East. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, the Dow dropped 1.2% (more than 600 points), and the Nasdaq slid 0.9% to 26,853.98—its largest single-day decline since 15 May. In after-hours trading, Broadcom fell 13% despite reporting record Q2 revenue of $22.2 billion and Q3 guidance of $29.4 billion that beat consensus, as its AI chip revenue outlook disappointed elevated expectations. PVH sank 21% after hours. CrowdStrike fell 10% after reporting a 15% jump in Q1 operating expenses. Costco reported May comparable sales up 12.5%, while Veeva reported solid Q1 results, though shares dipped on profit-taking. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 dropped 0.7%, the DAX shed 1.3%, the FTSE 100 declined 0.4%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.9%. TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, remains confident in its growth over the next few years, supported by robust demand for computing power and advanced semiconductors as it rides the AI boom.

US yields rose and pulled the USD Index up to 99.45. EURUSD saw its largest drop since 19 May, falling to $1.1598—the lowest 5 p.m. New York close since early April—before stabilising around 1.1611.

USDJPY briefly dipped to 159.83 after headlines that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire, but it is trading just below 160, last near 159.92. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has all but cemented a June rate hike in a clear narrative pivot toward fighting inflation; we are now around 159.85.

Gold and silver declined as the US dollar rose alongside Treasury yields, with the energy shock and stronger-than-expected jobs data supporting a more hawkish Fed outlook. They are currently at 4,467 and 73.20, respectively.

The overriding topics remain in place: Iran, inflation, the rate path, IPOs, and AI.

There are more and more voices calling a top in equities, which is not always a bad sign. However, it currently looks as though we may see the first negative week in the S&P 500 after nine consecutive positive ones. With Nonfarm Payrolls due tomorrow, nothing is decided yet. Looking at the options market, optimism is near its highest level since January 2021.

Trade carefully.

Thursday, June 4

Australia Trade Balance, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, June 5

EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payrolls, Canada Employment