Morning Brew June 3 2026

Good morning.

The AI trade keeps running, while Iran talks appear to be reaching a dead end.

Indexes were positive, though without much excitement. Oil is rising, precious metals are looking for direction, and copper remains strong.

Indexes gained between 0% and 0.5%, but volumes were quite strong at 20.5 billion shares versus an average of 19.6 billion. The Semiconductor Index surged 4.5%, led by Marvell Technology (+33%), after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggested it could become the next $1 trillion company. Hewlett Packard Enterprise soared 19.5% after reporting strong results and raising guidance. Alphabet’s capital increase and Anthropic’s IPO filing also drew attention. After hours, Palo Alto Networks rose on a higher profit outlook, and GitLab beat earnings expectations and guided above consensus.

The Nikkei broke 68,000 for the first time today, only days after breaching 67,000.

Rheinmetall announced on Tuesday that it had received an order from Romania for various military equipment, including infantry systems, air defense systems, and ammunition, valued at 5.7 billion euros—the company’s largest international order in recent years.

The US announced 10% duties, based on a forced-labor investigation, on imports from Canada, Ecuador, the European Union, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Britain. A further 45 countries will face duties of 12.5%.

In his first speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said he would follow the best traditions of the Fed while also promising a broad review of what could be done differently.

The USD Index is stronger at 99.26, EURUSD is at 1.1625, GBPUSD at 1.3456, and the yen is once again testing 160, currently at 159.87. The 160 level is widely seen as intervention territory.

Gold and silver are slightly lower after giving up yesterday’s initial gains; they are currently trading at 4,475 and 74.80, respectively. Gold remains between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at 4,417 and 4,630.

US crude is at 95, the UK benchmark at 97.20, and copper is near its all-time high at 666.

Market drivers remain the ongoing AI boom, uncertainty around Iran, and the upcoming IPOs and capital increases—can the market absorb them well? We are also heading into the next big central bank cycle, for most the expectations are very clear with probabilities above 90% - Japan at 70% in favor of a hike the most uncertain among the large Central banks.

Today, we are expecting PMI data from around the world. Any surprises could move markets, but I suspect the focus will remain on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.

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Wednesday, June 3

Global PMI, US Factory Orders

Thursday, June 4

Australia Trade Balance, US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, June 5

EU GDP, US Nonfarm Payrolls, Canada Employment