Morning Brew June 29 2026

Good Morning

Key things to watch:

• Wall Street was little changed on Friday, but volumes were exceptional.
• The U.S. and Iran agreed to pause hostilities.
• Half-year end is approaching.
• The coming Saturday is July 4th. This Friday, July 3rd, is a U.S. market holiday, so Nonfarm Payrolls will be released on Thursday.
• I will be on holiday for two weeks from Friday, so expect some volatility, as often happens when I am away.

The S&P 500 ended slightly lower on Friday as AI-linked chip stocks sold off, while healthcare offered some support. The S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 7,353.95, the Nasdaq fell 0.24% to 25,297.62, and the Dow lost 0.09% to 51,876.11. For the week, the S&P 500 was down 2.05% and the Nasdaq lost 4.7%.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index tumbled 5.3% on Friday and lost 7.9% for the week, its worst week since early April, as investors questioned AI profitability, rising capex and stretched expectations.

Apple rebounded 3.1% after Thursday’s selloff, helped by some relief buying despite concerns that higher memory and storage-chip costs are feeding through into iPad and MacBook prices.

Micron gave back some of Thursday’s gains and ended 6.8% lower. Moderna surged almost 13% to its highest level since 2024 after an investor event highlighted its pipeline. ON Semiconductor dropped almost 24% after agreeing to buy Synaptics in an all-stock deal worth about $7 billion, while Synaptics fell 3.7%. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors declined, led by industrials down 3.41% and materials down 2.45%. SpaceX barely moved despite joining the Russell indexes; the company will join the Nasdaq 100 on July 7th.
Friday volume was heavy at 30.1 billion shares, above the 20-session average of 23.1 billion. While the SMI is at all-time highs near 14,200, the GER40 remains stuck below 25,000 at 24,770.

U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded from record lows in June, but households remain worried about the high cost of living. Rate concerns remain in place, with markets pricing one 25-basis-point hike and a near 27% chance of another by year-end.

FX is relatively stable, with the USD Index at 101.30. USD/JPY remains firmly in intervention territory at 161.80. Japan’s retail sales climbed 5.3% year-on-year in May 2026, the fastest pace since November 2023, beating forecasts of 3.2% and up from a revised 2.8% in April. EUR/USD is at 1.1390, cable at 1.3210, and USD/CHF is below 0.81 again.

Gold and silver had a strong Friday but are now giving back some of the gains, trading at 4,050 and 58.30. Bitcoin is just below 60k, and oil is down about 1.7% in the UK line to 71.90. The fact that Gold reclaimed the 4000 was seen as a positive sign by many precious metals traders, the Month end will be closely watched. 

• Monday, June 29, 2026
  EU Consumer Confidence, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
• Tuesday, June 30, 2026
  U.S. Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Openings, Dallas Fed Texas Retail Outlook Survey
  Nike, Constellation Brands
• Wednesday, July 1, 2026
  Global Manufacturing PMI, U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Construction Spending, ADP Employment Report
• Thursday, July 2, 2026
  U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders; U.S. bond market early close ahead of Independence Day
• Friday, July 3, 2026
  U.S. Independence Day observed — U.S. equity markets closed; liquidity likely thin in Europe