Morning Brew July 3 2026

The next Morning Brew will be released on July 21. Trade safely.

Key things to watch:

• U.S. markets are closed today for Independence Day.
• The U.S. added 57k jobs in June, the weakest reading in four months and below both May’s revised 129k and the 113k forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%, largely because the labour force shrank.
• U.S. factory orders fell 1.3% in May after April’s 5.3% surge.
• The probability of a Fed hike in September fell by roughly 10 percentage points to around 55%.
• Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged shortcomings in Meta’s restructuring at an internal town hall, saying AI agents had not progressed as quickly as expected, according to Reuters.

The SMI reached a new all-time high yesterday, supported by low Swiss inflation and a dovish U.S. payrolls report.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.1% to a record high of 52,900, while the S&P 500 closed virtually flat at 7,483 as a semiconductor rout offset broader market gains. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.6%, dragged lower by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which lost 5.4%. For the week, the Dow rose about 2%, the S&P 500 gained 1.8% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.1%

Tesla was the standout decliner, closing down 7.5% in its worst session in nearly a year. SpaceX ended the day at 161, Apple surged 4.8% on news there would be five new IPhone models. , Meta fell 4.5%, and Nvidia slipped 2.3%. European equities rallied strongly, with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 1.4% to a fresh record at 648.35, led by healthcare and financials as investors rotated out of technology. The DAX surged 2.2% to 25,580, with Rheinmetall up more than 6%, while the FTSE 100 gained 1.7% to 10,652.

Gold held two days of gains, trading around USD 4,175 after surging 2.3% on Thursday — its largest one-day move in three weeks — as the weak payrolls data reduced the probability of near-term Fed hikes. UBS cut its year-end gold forecast by USD 600 to USD 5,000/oz, citing higher rates and a stronger dollar as headwinds, while maintaining a USD 4,000–5,000/oz trading range view. Silver is at 62.40.

The USD receded to 100.77. EURUSD is at 1.1440, GBPUSD at 1.3365, USD/PY at 161.15, and USDCHF at 0.8025, after the softer U.S. payrolls report weighed on the dollar side of the pairs.

The agenda today is rather thin, with only the European PMI likely to be noteworthy. With U.S. markets closed and liquidity likely reduced, it could either be a very calm session or an erratic one. Trade safely, and see you in two weeks.