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Morning Brew July 17 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: May you live in intersting times...
Good morning,
I had speculated yesterday that a lashing out by Donald Trump is likely to distract from his issues around the Epstein Files and the handling of the Flood in Texas. Near noon in the US, Bloomberg wrote on the possibility of Jerome Powell would be fired, citing an undisclosed source in the US administration. Reuters also heard from a source Trump was open to the idea. Markets reacted quite strongly with the USD losing app 1% and equities fell. Trump then denied the reports within the hour. Donald Trump said he was not currently planning to fire Jerome Powell but kept up his criticism for not lowering interest rates.
Was this a test of the markets reaction to an attack of the Fed`s independence? While the volatility was strong, was it strong enough to avert the action?
Earnings and forecasts were mixed: ASML fell strongly: ASML shares fell sharply following the release of its Q2 results. We take a closer look at the numbers and what’s behind the market reaction
Goldman Sachs rose 0.9% after a 22% earnings increase, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley fell 0.3% and 1.3% despite higher profits Johnson & Johnson added 6.2%.
Koen looked at bitcoin: Bitcoin surges past USD 120K - what top analysts see coming next
This morning, the USD Index is trading 98.40, EURUSD 1.1622, GBPUSD 1.3390, USDJPY 148.40. Platinum has breached 1400 again., Gold is 3340 and Silver 38. The US 500 6255, US 30 44180 and the US Tech 22880 and the GER40 24200
US 10-year Yields are just below the 4.50 while the 30s are just above the 5%.
Looking ahead, we have a busy day: Earnings from TSMC, Netflix, Novartis and Interactive Brokers, key data with the EU Inflation, and US retail sales. There is also fighting in the middle east again. trade talks between the US, India as well as the EU can move markets and se also have the G20 Finance Ministers meeting in Durban. Market moving comments out of the US administration remain likely.
Trade safely.
Thursday, July 17
- Australia: Labor Market Data
- EU Inflation
- United Kingdom: Labor Market Data
- United States: Retail Sales Data (June)
Earnings: TSMC, Pepsi, US Bancorp, Abott, Novartis, Netflix, Interactive,
Friday, July 18
- Japan CPI
- United States: Preliminary Consumer Confidence Index
Earnings: Huntington, 3M American Express, Charles Schwab,