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Morning Brew February 28 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Treading water
Good Morning,
Bad Durable goods orders and a disappointing consumer confidence weigh on sentiment without lowering the yield and raising hopes of rate cuts.
We saw basically a pause in equities with the Dow slightly lower while the S&P and the Nasdaq could rise – all stayed within 0.5% plus or minus. Interestingly the GER40 seems to be celebrating the German recession and is up 2.5% on the week at 17580. Cinese small caps are under severe pressure this morning as the small cap Index falls 6.5%.
The 10 Year yields are little moved at 4.28 and the USD index a little higher. EURUSD is at 1.0825, GBPUSD 1.2655 and USDJPY 150.66 again.
Gold and Silver are lower at 2028 and 22.40, Bitcoin strong at 57k. Kim posted on the technicals of Bitcoin below while Ole on the resilience of Gold to rate expectation changes.
Technical Update - Coinbase and Crypto mining companies lifted by rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum
Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions
Today we have the key earnings day of the week with Salesforce and Snowflake, there is a release of the PCE Prices Index Preliminary, this in NOT the core measurement of the Feds inflation - that will released tomorrow.
The US GDP will be closely watched today but I would expect tomorrows PCE and or the Tech earnings today to make or break the week.
Key events:
Wednesday
- Data Australia CPI, EU Consumer Confiddence, US GDP
- Earnings: Oversea-Chinese Banking, Holcim, Royal Bank of Canada, TJX Cos, Salesforce, Snowflake, Monster Beverage, Universal Music, Reckitt Benckiser
Thursday
- Data CH FX Reserves, DE Unemployment Rate, US PCE, Initial Jobless claims
- Earnings: Alimentation, Anheuser-Busch, CRH, NetEase, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, London Stock Exchange Group
Friday
- Data EU HICP International PMI, NO Nonfarm Payroll
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