Market Quick Take – 3 July 2025

Q3-2025 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US tech rally, tariff relief, UK political stress, Asia mixe
• Volatility: VIX stays low, SPX expected move ±33pts, jobs data ahead
• Digital assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, IBIT, ETHA higher; Ripple, COIN, MSTR in focus
• Fixed Income: Gilts-led weakness across global bond markets
• Currencies: Broad but limited dollar gain led by GBP slump
• Commodities: Gold trades higher ahead of jobs report. Copper market tightness
• Macro events: US June Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Macro data and headlines

• In June 2025, US ADP private businesses lost 33K jobs, marking the first decline since March 2023, following a revised loss of 29K in May, and falling short of the forecasted 95K job gain.
• Trump continued criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, urging him to resign. Without naming him directly, Trump posted on Truth Social that "'Too Late' should resign immediately," criticising Powell for delayed interest rate cuts. Trump wants a chair who will support his economic agenda, including cutting interest rates
• Trump announced on Truth Social that the US has completed a trade agreement with Vietnam, featuring a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports, which is notably lower than the 46% rate established in April. Goods that are deemed to have been transshipped, i.e. coming mostly from China will be levied at 40%. Beijing has made clear that it would respond to deals that came at the expense of Chinese interests
• Keir Starmer's office scrambled to express support for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves after the Prime Minister failed to back her in parliament following a U-turn on the government's flagship welfare reforms, leaving er facing a widening fiscal hole of more than £6 billion to fill. The initial lack of commitment to Reeves prompted markets to slump.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1130 – ECB Minutes from June Policy Meeting
1230 – US June Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
1230 – US May Trade Balance
1400 – US June ISM Services
1430 – EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change

Some US markets close early ahead of Independence Day holiday

Earnings events

Next week: The Progressive Corporation, Fast Retailing, Cintas Corporation, Kongsberg, Delta Airlines

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Q3-2025 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

Equities

• US: US stocks climbed to fresh record highs as the S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Nasdaq jumped 0.8%, fueled by tech leaders Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla. Optimism came from a US-Vietnam trade deal, with tariffs set lower than feared, and softer labor data stoking hopes for Fed rate cuts. The Dow was flat. Treasury yields ticked up as markets await today’s jobs report. Tesla rebounded 5% after strong deliveries, while Robinhood and MicroStrategy also outperformed. Sentiment is steady as investors eye the controversial tax bill and key payrolls data later today.
• Europe: European markets closed higher, with the DAX up 0.5% and CAC 40 rising 1%. Autos led gains—BMW and Daimler Truck rose as tariff worries eased. Investors watched ongoing US-EU trade talks, as the US pushes a 10% tariff but exemptions are under discussion. ECB officials expressed concern about euro strength impacting inflation. Banking, energy, and luxury stocks (LVMH, Glencore) outperformed. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as UK bond yields spiked on political uncertainty and housebuilders fell sharply. Miners offered some support.
• UK: UK stocks lagged peers as the FTSE 100 edged down 0.1%, weighed by political jitters around the Chancellor. Bond yields surged—the sharpest jump since April—hurting rate-sensitive sectors like homebuilders and real estate. Berkeley and Persimmon dropped 8% and 6% respectively. Miners Glencore and Anglo American outperformed. The pound fell to its weakest G10 currency position as markets questioned fiscal outlooks.
• Asia: Asian stocks were mixed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.7% on tech sector weakness, with Alibaba and Meituan leading declines after news of heavy e-commerce subsidies. In China, the CSI300 rose 0.5%, helped by healthcare stocks and fresh stimulus hopes ahead of the Politburo meeting. Vietnamese stocks hit a 3-year high after the US trade deal. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 1%, and Taiwan rallied as the dollar weakened.

Volatility

Market volatility remains subdued. The VIX closed at 16.64, near recent lows, as investors look past trade headlines and enjoy calmer summer trading. Option prices suggest the S&P 500 is expected to move about ±33 points, or 0.5%, for today’s shortened session—well below June’s average swings. With a quiet backdrop, any surprise from US payroll data this afternoon could quickly shift the mood.

Digital Assets

Crypto markets regained momentum, with Bitcoin up to $109,375 (+0.5%) and Ethereum above $2,591 (+0.8%). Institutional demand remains strong: BlackRock’s IBIT ETF climbed 4.3%, and the new iShares ETHA ETF surged nearly 6%. Major crypto stocks like MicroStrategy (+7.8%) and Coinbase (+5.7%) rallied on positive sector news. Ripple’s bank charter application and regulatory moves drew attention, while altcoins and meme tokens followed Bitcoin higher. Crypto sentiment is buoyed by easing macro worries and continued ETF inflows.

Fixed Income

• Treasuries bear-steepened as the long end of the curve faced losses ahed of a pivotal US jobs report. The US curve was affected by President Trump's ambitious timeline for his bill and after fresh fiscal concerns sparked a selloff in the UK bond market. Initial front-end gains from a 33,000 drop in ADP employment change were reversed throughout the day.
• The global bond selloff was led by gilts, with UK 30-year yields rising over 20 basis points during the London session, driven by speculation about Chancellor Rachel Reeves' potential exit.
• Outside market developments in the US and UK saw JGB Futures trade lower with the 30-year bond yield 2 basis points higher at 2.90 despite seeing a 30-year government bond auction receive the strongest bid-to-cover ratio since February.

Commodities

• Crude prices rose 3% on Wednesday after Trump said he had struck a deal with Vietnam but drifted lower again overnight amid the weight of additional supply from a group of OPEC+ producers, and after the EIA reported a 3.8-million-barrel weekly increase in US stockpiles—the first since May.
• Copper prices in London briefly rose above USD 10,000 per tonne as traders continued to exploit the wide gap between London and New York. A record amount of copper has been shipped to the US this year ahead of an expected tariff announcement, leaving the rest of the world with tightening supplies. In addition, a supply disruption in Peru has also helped underpin prices, with the NY HG copper price trading near a three-month high.
• Gold trades higher for a fourth day near USD 3,360 in response to US fiscal debt concerns, a softer ADP read ahead of today’s jobs report, as well as continued demand from central banks. Bullion received a fresh bid on Monday after the latest selling attempt ran out of steam ahead of key support around USD 3,245.

Currencies

• USD experienced modest gains ahead of Friday’s Independence Day holiday primarily due to its strength against GBP, which faced unique risks in the UK. However, the overall increase in the Bloomberg DXY—which hit a three-year low on Monday—was limited by negative US data, including a disappointing ADP report showing a loss of 33,000 jobs.
• GBP slumped to 1.3565 on Wednesday on political uncertainty in the UK, before bouncing a bit as Keir Starmer's office scrambled to express support for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves after the Prime Minister failed to back her in parliament during Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs).
• EUR has settled into a narrow range around 1.1800 after Monday’s move to a near four-year high that was met with some profit-taking, mostly due to broad dollar strength.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.