Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 28 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Treading water


Good Morning,

Bad Durable goods orders and a disappointing consumer confidence weigh on sentiment without lowering the yield and raising hopes of rate cuts.

We saw basically a pause in equities with the Dow slightly lower while the S&P and the Nasdaq could rise – all stayed within 0.5% plus or minus. Interestingly the GER40 seems to be celebrating the German recession and is up 2.5% on the week at 17580. Cinese small caps are under severe pressure this morning as the small cap Index falls 6.5%.

The 10 Year yields are little moved at 4.28 and the USD index a little higher. EURUSD is at 1.0825, GBPUSD 1.2655 and USDJPY 150.66 again.

Gold and Silver are lower at 2028 and 22.40, Bitcoin strong at 57k. Kim posted on the technicals of Bitcoin below while Ole on the resilience of Gold to rate expectation changes.

Technical Update - Coinbase and Crypto mining companies lifted by rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum

Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions

 

Today we have the key earnings day of the week with Salesforce and Snowflake, there is a release of the PCE Prices Index Preliminary, this in NOT the core measurement of the Feds inflation - that will released tomorrow.

The US GDP will be closely watched today but I would expect tomorrows PCE and or the Tech earnings today to make or break the week.

Key events:

 

Wednesday
- Data Australia CPI, EU Consumer Confiddence, US GDP
- Earnings: Oversea-Chinese Banking, Holcim, Royal Bank of Canada, TJX Cos, Salesforce, Snowflake, Monster Beverage, Universal Music, Reckitt Benckiser

Thursday
- Data CH FX  Reserves, DE Unemployment Rate, US PCE, Initial Jobless claims 
- Earnings: Alimentation, Anheuser-Busch, CRH, NetEase, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, London Stock Exchange Group

Friday
- Data EU HICP International PMI, NO Nonfarm Payroll

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

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TNH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

UBH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XCH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XKH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XWH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

Z3NH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

HGH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

SIH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZBH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

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ZLH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

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ZWH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

SBH4 will expire 29 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

OILUKAPR24 will expire 29 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

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