Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 28 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Treading water


Good Morning,

Bad Durable goods orders and a disappointing consumer confidence weigh on sentiment without lowering the yield and raising hopes of rate cuts.

We saw basically a pause in equities with the Dow slightly lower while the S&P and the Nasdaq could rise – all stayed within 0.5% plus or minus. Interestingly the GER40 seems to be celebrating the German recession and is up 2.5% on the week at 17580. Cinese small caps are under severe pressure this morning as the small cap Index falls 6.5%.

The 10 Year yields are little moved at 4.28 and the USD index a little higher. EURUSD is at 1.0825, GBPUSD 1.2655 and USDJPY 150.66 again.

Gold and Silver are lower at 2028 and 22.40, Bitcoin strong at 57k. Kim posted on the technicals of Bitcoin below while Ole on the resilience of Gold to rate expectation changes.

Technical Update - Coinbase and Crypto mining companies lifted by rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum

Resilient gold market defies lower rate cut predictions

 

Today we have the key earnings day of the week with Salesforce and Snowflake, there is a release of the PCE Prices Index Preliminary, this in NOT the core measurement of the Feds inflation - that will released tomorrow.

The US GDP will be closely watched today but I would expect tomorrows PCE and or the Tech earnings today to make or break the week.

Key events:

 

Wednesday
- Data Australia CPI, EU Consumer Confiddence, US GDP
- Earnings: Oversea-Chinese Banking, Holcim, Royal Bank of Canada, TJX Cos, Salesforce, Snowflake, Monster Beverage, Universal Music, Reckitt Benckiser

Thursday
- Data CH FX  Reserves, DE Unemployment Rate, US PCE, Initial Jobless claims 
- Earnings: Alimentation, Anheuser-Busch, CRH, NetEase, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, London Stock Exchange Group

Friday
- Data EU HICP International PMI, NO Nonfarm Payroll

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

TTFMH4 will expire 27 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

EMAH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

TNH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

UBH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XCH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XKH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

XWH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

Z3NH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

HGH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

SIH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZBH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZCH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZLH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZMH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZNH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZSH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

ZWH4 will expire 28 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

SBH4 will expire 29 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

OILUKAPR24 will expire 29 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.