Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Market volatility remains subdued, with the VIX closing at 16.73—well below recent stress levels—while the short-term VIX1D fell to 10.17. This suggests investor nerves have eased after a choppy second quarter. The 3-month VIX sits near its post-pandemic average, indicating only moderate swings expected ahead. For long-term investors, calmer markets provide a breather as attention shifts to Friday’s US payrolls and Q2 earnings.
Bitcoin holds steady near $107,000, and Ethereum trades around $2,455, both at the high end of June’s range. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF continues to attract inflows, supporting prices and giving mainstream investors a steady on-ramp; IBIT’s NAV is up 14% year-to-date. ETHA (Ethereum ETF) remains in focus after recent outflows but still offers institutional exposure. Crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy and mining firms posted strong gains. The first US staked crypto ETF (focused on Solana) launches this week, reflecting growing market innovation.
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