QT_QuickTake

Market Quick Take - July 1, 2025

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo Strategy Team

Market Quick Take – 1 July 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

  • Equities: US record highs; tariff deadline looms; tech leads; EU cautious; UK trade deal relief; Asia mixed
  • Volatility: VIX low; nerves calmed; payrolls and earnings in focus
  • Digital assets: Bitcoin steady; IBIT inflows; ETHA stable; Solana ETF debut; crypto stocks rise
  • Fixed Income: US long treasury yields dip to almost two-month low
  • Currencies: USD weakness continues as EURUSD touched 1.1800 overnight
  • Commodities: Dollar weakness lift gold and silver. Crude challenged by OPEC+ production focus
  • Macro events: Germany unemployment, US ISM Manufacturing & May JOLTS Job Openings

Macro data and headlines

  • US Senate Republicans are scrounging around for votes to pass their version of the USD 3.3 trillion “big, beautiful bill”, with eight Republicans still said to be holding out, when they only hold a three-vote majority. As of early European hours, the Senate is still in session and will vote on amendments of the controversial healthcare cuts and anaggressive clean energy phase out schedule
  • China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded in June to 50.4 from 48.3 in May, suggesting relief after a trade-war truce with the US led to a recovery in both supply and demand.
  • Germany’s annual consumer price inflation fell to 2.0% in June 2025, below May's 2.1% and market expectations of 2.2%. This is the lowest since October 2024 and aligns with the European Central Bank’s target for the first time since then.
  • EU is willing to accept the 10% universal tariffs but wishes for lower rates on key sectors like automobiles, car parts, steel and aluminium.
  • Bank of Japan’s index for large manufacturers increased to 13 in Q2 2025 from 12 in Q4, surpassing market forecasts of 10, amid rising U.S. tariffs.
  • The Dallas Fed’s Texas manufacturing index improved to -12.7 in June 2025 from -15.3 in May, indicating a fifth month of contraction but with easing signs. Output remained flat, with the production index steady at 1.3.

 

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

 

  • 0755 – Germany June Unemployment Change
  • 0800 – Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (final)
  • 0830 – UK June Manufacturing PMI (final)
  • 0900 – Eurozone Flash June CPI
  • 1345 – US June Manufacturing PMI (final)
  • 1400 – US June ISM Manufacturing
  • 1400 – US May JOLTS Job Openings, Construction Spending

Earnings events

  • Today: Constellation brands

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

  • US: US stocks closed out the month and quarter at record highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up 0.5% and the Dow rising 0.6%. Big Tech, including Microsoft and Meta, led the rally; Apple climbed 2% on AI partnership news. Optimism was fueled by trade deal progress, especially after Canada scrapped its digital services tax, and expectations for Fed rate cuts as Treasury yields fell. Investors remain focused on President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline and upcoming jobs data, while most sectors stayed positive with financials and tech outperforming.
  • Europe: European markets started the week lower, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both down 0.4%. Caution prevailed ahead of US tariff deadlines, even as trade negotiations made headway and Canada dropped its digital tax. Inflation in Germany slowed to 2%, matching ECB targets, while mixed corporate results saw L’Oréal rise 2.3% and Siemens decline. For the month, the STOXX 50 slipped 0.9%, weighed by trade uncertainty and modest economic data.
  • UK: The FTSE 100 slipped 0.4% Monday despite confirmed Q1 GDP growth of 0.7%. The new UK-US trade deal provided some relief, reducing tariffs on autos and aerospace. Sector performance was mixed, with Rolls-Royce and Auto Trader gaining, while homebuilders lagged. Mortgage approvals beat expectations, suggesting underlying economic resilience, but inflation concerns linger. The FTSE 100 ended the quarter up 2.1%, with year-to-date gains over 7%.
  • Asia: Asian equities posted mixed results as Wall Street’s record highs buoyed sentiment but Japan’s Nikkei dropped 1% on renewed US tariff threats. South Korea’s KOSPI led regional gains, up 1.6% as Samsung rallied. China’s markets edged higher after a positive manufacturing PMI, while Hong Kong remained closed for a holiday. Mainland money continues to flow into Hong Kong stocks, driving a 21% rally for H1 2025, with investors seeking value and yield.

Volatility

Market volatility remains subdued, with the VIX closing at 16.73—well below recent stress levels—while the short-term VIX1D fell to 10.17. This suggests investor nerves have eased after a choppy second quarter. The 3-month VIX sits near its post-pandemic average, indicating only moderate swings expected ahead. For long-term investors, calmer markets provide a breather as attention shifts to Friday’s US payrolls and Q2 earnings.


Digital Assets

Bitcoin holds steady near $107,000, and Ethereum trades around $2,455, both at the high end of June’s range. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF continues to attract inflows, supporting prices and giving mainstream investors a steady on-ramp; IBIT’s NAV is up 14% year-to-date. ETHA (Ethereum ETF) remains in focus after recent outflows but still offers institutional exposure. Crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy and mining firms posted strong gains. The first US staked crypto ETF (focused on Solana) launches this week, reflecting growing market innovation.


Fixed Income

  • US Treasury yields slumped to new cycle lows at the long end of the yield curve, with the 10-year treasury benchmark hitting 4.2% for the first time since May 2. At the short end of the curve, the move was less pronounced as the 2-year benchmark pushed toward the recent cycle low of 3.70% ahead of key US data, especially the June US jobs report up on Thursday (because US markets are closed on Friday).
  • Germany’s 10-year Bund yield continues to ignore the US Treasury market, with the benchmark rising marginally to close near 2.61%. This narrowed the yield differential between US and German debt to -160 basis points, the narrowest since the March-April time frame, when the market was absorbing the German intent to launch a vast fiscal expansion. The cycle high of that yield spread was -138 basis points.

Commodities

  • The Bloomberg Commodity Index TR fell 2.8% in Q2, leaving the index, which tracks 24 major commodities, up 5.9% on the year. The weakness was led by a 10% drop in energy, and a 3.8% fall in agriculture prices, while industrial metals traded close to flat, and precious metals traded higher by 4.6%. It is worth noting that cocoa and platinum, the two highflyers with 23% and 34% gains respectively, are not included in the index.
  • Oil prices trade near a one-month low, falling for a second day amid focus on OPEC+'s upcoming output quota increase, where the group may agree to another 411,000-barrel-per-day hike for August, for now only partly offset by potential trade deals improving the demand outlook.
  • Gold and silver both bounced yesterday after finding support ahead of their recent lows, in gold at USD 3,245 and silver from the USD 35.30–40 area, while platinum continues to consolidate following last month's 30% rally, with support so far being found at USD 1,325. The continued dollar weakness, down almost 11% in the first six months, as well as rate cut expectations in the second half, remain two key sources of support.
  • The grains sector trades lower for a second day after the USDA reported larger-than-expected soybean and wheat stocks. In addition, corn futures are pressured by strong crop conditions and adequate supplies, while wheat is being weighed down by seasonal harvest pressure

Currencies

  • The euro-heavy US dollar index fell to new cycle lows yesterday as EURUSD briefly teased above 1.1800 overnight before dropping back slightly and USDCHF closed south of 0.8000 yesterday, hitting 0.7920 overnight as EURCHF also fell. USDCHF has only ever posted a weekly close below 0.8000 in an episode in late 2011 during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
  • Choppy USDJPY fell back toward 143.50 overnight after backing up yesterday to 144.50, but remains embedded in the range to the low 142.00’s and the bigger range toward 140.00.
  • AUDUSD managed to clear recent range highs of 0.6565, but has posted several new highs since first clearing 0.6400 back in late April without notable upward trending, perhaps in part as concerns about China’s economy weigh.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Select region

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.