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Morning Brew February 21 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Nvidia-Day - Why we need to care
Good Morning,
I would not dare to state where Nvidia will be trading at the end of the week, it certainly reached our prediction yesterday which was volatility!
The Stock fell as much as 6% yesterday and pulled not only the tech sector but S&P as well as the Nasdaq lower. This week’s options are trading at an implied volatility of more than 160% and the December ATM are near 50% - suggesting massive moves to come.
In the close, the stock ended down 4.35% and the S&P lost 0.6%, the Dow 0.17% and the Nasdaq 0.92%.
Besides Tech, Walmart surprised traders with a strong outlook, boosted the dividend and reached an all-time high. Kim took a look at the SMI and sees potential, pls see the link below.
US Yields fell below the 4.30 again yesterday and pulled the USD Index to near 104, EURUSD rose to 1.0809, GBPUSD 1.2630, USDJPY 150 and Gold and Silver are stronger at 2030 and 23.16, Bitcoin is trading below the 52kl.
Today, all focus will be on the Nvidia earnings after the bell, at 20:00 CET, the Fed minutes will be released and could have an impact if there is any surprise but overall the expected value change of Nvidia will grab all attention. Based on the current implied volatility we are looking at a possible value change of USD 200 bio – which explains the nervousness in the markets.
Here two key articles on Nvidia by our Strats:
Peter on earnings: All eyes on Nvidia earnings as AI boom reaches historic proportions
Koen on how to play the options: Volatility report - week 08 - earnings, expected moves and trade setups (SMH, PANW, NVDA, SQ)
Other key articles:
Wednesday
- Data, EU Consumer confidence, Fed Minutes
- Earnings: HSBC, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Analog Devices, NVIDIA; Synopsis, BAE Systems
Thursday
- Data International PMI, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial jobless claims,
- Earnings: Zurich Insurance, Nestle, AXA, Booking.com, Intuit, Mercedes, Iberdrola,
Friday
- Data DE GDP, IFO,
- Earnings: Deutsche Telekom, Allianz
Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway Inc
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