Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 21 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Nvidia-Day - Why we need to care


Good Morning,

I would not dare to state where Nvidia will be trading at the end of the week, it certainly reached our prediction yesterday which was volatility!

The Stock fell as much as 6% yesterday and pulled not only the tech sector but S&P as well as the Nasdaq lower. This week’s options are trading at an implied volatility of more than 160% and the December ATM are near 50% - suggesting massive moves to come.

In the close, the stock ended down 4.35% and the S&P lost 0.6%, the Dow 0.17% and the Nasdaq 0.92%.

 Besides Tech, Walmart surprised traders with a strong outlook, boosted the dividend and reached an all-time high. Kim took a look at the SMI and sees potential, pls see the link below.

US Yields fell below the 4.30 again yesterday and pulled the USD Index to near 104, EURUSD rose to 1.0809, GBPUSD 1.2630, USDJPY 150 and Gold and Silver are stronger at 2030 and 23.16, Bitcoin is trading below the 52kl.

Today, all focus will be on the Nvidia earnings after the bell, at 20:00 CET,  the Fed minutes will be released and could have an impact if there is any surprise but overall the expected value change of Nvidia will grab all attention. Based on the current implied volatility we are looking at a possible value change of USD 200 bio – which explains the nervousness in the markets.

Here two key articles on Nvidia by our Strats: 

Peter on earnings: All eyes on Nvidia earnings as AI boom reaches historic proportions

Koen on how to play the options: Volatility report - week 08 - earnings, expected moves and trade setups (SMH, PANW, NVDA, SQ)

Other key articles:

Technical Update - SMI 20 breaking resistance, likely cancelling reversal pattern. Set for higher levels

Technical Update - SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 uptrend exhaustion or extension? Check out the key levels here

WTI crude eyes key resistance

 

Wednesday
- Data, EU Consumer confidence,  Fed Minutes
- Earnings: HSBC, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Analog Devices, NVIDIA; Synopsis, BAE Systems

Thursday
- Data International PMI, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial jobless claims,
- Earnings: Zurich Insurance, Nestle, AXA, Booking.com, Intuit, Mercedes, Iberdrola,

Friday
- Data DE GDP, IFO,
- Earnings: Deutsche Telekom, Allianz

Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway Inc

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

CTH4 will expire 22 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
CCH4 will expire 22 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
PAH4 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
OJH4 will expire 23 Feb 2024 at 13:15 GMT
NGH4 will expire 26 Feb 2024 at 20:30 GMT
RCH4 will expire 23 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

COTTONMAR24 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
COCOANYMAR24 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
NATGASUSMAR24 will expire 23 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.