Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
SMI20 closed yesterday above resistance at around 11,334. Combined with the RSI closing back above 60 threshold thus re-confirming positive sentiment SMI is likely to move higher potentially cancelling the top and reversal pattern formed end- January (circled).
A move higher to the May 2023 peak at around 11,616 within few points the 1.382 projection at 11,630 is in the cards
A daily close above 11,616 could see SMI pushing higher to 11,730 level.
There is still RSI divergence but if RSI is closing above its falling trend line – where it is in currently – it is a strong indication of higher levels
A close back below 11,315 will place Smi back in neutral demolishing the bullish scenario. A close below 11,057 will establish a bearish trend