Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 21 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Nvidia-Day - Why we need to care

Good Morning,

I would not dare to state where Nvidia will be trading at the end of the week, it certainly reached our prediction yesterday which was volatility!

The Stock fell as much as 6% yesterday and pulled not only the tech sector but S&P as well as the Nasdaq lower. This week’s options are trading at an implied volatility of more than 160% and the December ATM are near 50% - suggesting massive moves to come.

In the close, the stock ended down 4.35% and the S&P lost 0.6%, the Dow 0.17% and the Nasdaq 0.92%.

 Besides Tech, Walmart surprised traders with a strong outlook, boosted the dividend and reached an all-time high. Kim took a look at the SMI and sees potential, pls see the link below.

US Yields fell below the 4.30 again yesterday and pulled the USD Index to near 104, EURUSD rose to 1.0809, GBPUSD 1.2630, USDJPY 150 and Gold and Silver are stronger at 2030 and 23.16, Bitcoin is trading below the 52kl.

Today, all focus will be on the Nvidia earnings after the bell, at 20:00 CET,  the Fed minutes will be released and could have an impact if there is any surprise but overall the expected value change of Nvidia will grab all attention. Based on the current implied volatility we are looking at a possible value change of USD 200 bio – which explains the nervousness in the markets.

Here two key articles on Nvidia by our Strats: 

Peter on earnings: All eyes on Nvidia earnings as AI boom reaches historic proportions

Koen on how to play the options: Volatility report - week 08 - earnings, expected moves and trade setups (SMH, PANW, NVDA, SQ)

Other key articles:

Technical Update - SMI 20 breaking resistance, likely cancelling reversal pattern. Set for higher levels

Technical Update - SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 uptrend exhaustion or extension? Check out the key levels here

WTI crude eyes key resistance


- Data, EU Consumer confidence,  Fed Minutes
- Earnings: HSBC, Rio Tinto, Glencore, Analog Devices, NVIDIA; Synopsis, BAE Systems

- Data International PMI, Turkey Rate decision, US Initial jobless claims,
- Earnings: Zurich Insurance, Nestle, AXA,, Intuit, Mercedes, Iberdrola,

- Data DE GDP, IFO,
- Earnings: Deutsche Telekom, Allianz

Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway Inc


Physically Settled Futures

CTH4 will expire 22 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
CCH4 will expire 22 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
PAH4 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
OJH4 will expire 23 Feb 2024 at 13:15 GMT
NGH4 will expire 26 Feb 2024 at 20:30 GMT
RCH4 will expire 23 Feb 2024 at 10:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

COTTONMAR24 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
COCOANYMAR24 will expire 21 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT
NATGASUSMAR24 will expire 23 Feb 2024 at 16:00 GMT



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