Weekly market recap & what's ahead

30 June 2025 (recap week of 23 to 27 June 2025)

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Headlines & introduction

Global markets saw record highs and notable volatility declines as US-Iran tensions eased, trade optimism grew, and expectations for Fed rate cuts strengthened. Tech outperformed, while energy and commodities lagged after a sharp drop in oil prices. Crypto stabilized on institutional inflows. Investors are now turning attention to US jobs data, Trump’s fiscal plans, and ongoing trade negotiations.
It was a week of renewed confidence as investors weighed policy and earnings against global risk.

Equities

Volatility

Market volatility declined sharply. The VIX closed at 16.3 on 27 June, down from 19.8 at the week’s start (24 June), as fears over war and inflation faded. Demand for downside protection has lessened, with most investors now rolling existing hedges. Calm conditions offer attractive insurance costs, but major events remain on the horizon.
For now, markets appear tranquil, but investors should remember that volatility can return quickly.

Digital assets

Bitcoin hovered around $107,500 (27 June), recovering with broader risk assets. Institutional inflows continued: BlackRock’s IBIT ETF topped $70bn AUM, while ETHA also drew fresh demand despite being down 27% YTD. Ethereum traded at $2,437 (27 June). Ripple saw renewed interest after recent court news; Invesco filed for a Solana ETF. Mining is increasingly dominated by large operators like Tether and Hut 8.
Digital assets are gaining traction as traditional finance and crypto markets continue to converge.

Fixed income

US Treasury yields fell to multi-week lows as rate cut bets grew. The 10-year yield reached 4.24% (27 June) before rebounding to 4.26%. The 2-year benchmark dipped to 3.71% on Fed Chair speculation, then recovered to 3.74%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed to its highest in over a month, reflecting looming fiscal expansion.
Bond markets are adjusting to evolving central bank guidance and a shifting macro outlook.

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Commodities

Commodities dropped sharply. Crude lost 9.7% on easing Middle East risk (24–27 June). Grains fell 5.2% as favorable weather boosted supply prospects. Gold fell 2.2% despite dollar weakness, while platinum and copper saw strong performance early in the week before stalling. Traders now watch for fresh trade and OPEC+ news.
This week’s commodity moves show just how quickly global sentiment and supply concerns can shift.

Currencies

USD fell broadly, with JPY the week’s strongest gainer after USDJPY plunged below 144.00 (27 June) on lower yields and trade hopes. EURUSD briefly topped 1.17. NOK and CAD were notable movers—NOK weakened on oil’s slump, CAD gained as Canada scrapped its digital tax.
Currency markets reflected shifting interest rate expectations and trade policy headlines throughout the week.

Key takeaways

• Record highs for US and European equities, led by tech and defense.
• Volatility dropped: VIX at 16.3, option protection cheaper.
• Bitcoin steady; IBIT and ETHA draw inflows, Solana ETF in focus.
• US 10Y yield at 4.24%; Bunds rise on stimulus.
• Oil, gold, grains tumbled; copper and platinum strong early.
• USD weak; JPY surged, NOK down on oil.
  These developments set the tone for a summer of potentially lower volatility but elevated event risk.

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Looking ahead (30 June to 4 July 2025)

• US jobs report (Thursday): Key for rate cut expectations.
• Independence Day: Markets close early Thursday, closed Friday.
• Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and tariff policy: Congressional action and negotiations ongoing.
• Tesla June deliveries (Wednesday), Constellation Brands earnings (Tuesday).
• Major economic data: ISM Manufacturing, PMI, jobless claims, trade balance, factory orders.
  A short week still packs major data and political developments that could set the tone for July.

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Conclusion

Markets closed the week on a strong note, buoyed by hopes for further Fed easing, calming global tensions, and constructive trade headlines. While volatility has eased and investors remain optimistic, the upcoming jobs report and policy decisions could quickly reshape the outlook. Staying diversified and alert remains essential as we head into a holiday-shortened, event-packed week.