Morning Brew February 10 2026

Good morning,

Finally a day to calm the nerves after the massive shifts last week. On Wallstreet “only” 17.8 billion shares were traded.

US

• One-year inflation expectations in the US have decreased to 3.1% from December's 3.4%. Slower price increases are anticipated in gas, medical care, rent, and home prices. Three and five-year inflation expectations remain stable at 3%. Earnings growth has risen to 2.7%,
• US stocks saw gains on Monday, with the Dow up 0.1% to a record high, the S&P 500 rising 0.5%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.8%, driven by strength in large-cap tech and AI-linked companies. Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle led the rebound, with Oracle rising 9.6% due to an AI-driven upgrade. Alphabet raised $20 billion through senior unsecured notes, drawing over $100 billion in demand. OpenAI's ChatGPT is reportedly back to exceeding 10% monthly growth.

Europe

• European equities started the week positively, with the STOXX 50 up 0.9% and the STOXX 600 rising 0.5%, both reaching record highs. The positive sentiment was influenced by global gains and Japan's rally following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory. Healthcare stocks outperformed, led by Novo Nordisk's 8% increase and a 0.9% rise in Novartis after Hims & Hers withdrew a copycat weight loss drug. Gains were also seen in ASML, HSBC, AstraZeneca, SAP, and Rheinmetall. UniCredit rose 5% on an upgraded profit outlook, while InPost surged over 13% on a takeover deal. However, Vinci slipped 1% and NatWest fell nearly 4%. The Ger40 is testing the 25,000 level, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rose to new highs, nearing the 57,500 mark.

Currency and Commodities:

• The USD fell over 1% in two trading sessions following reports that Chinese regulators advised financial institutions to reduce their holdings of US Treasuries. The DXY fell below 97, yet US Treasuries were largely unaffected, with yields about 1 basis point lower and the 10-year yield near 4.2%. The EUR/USD is above 1.319, GBP/USD is at 1.3680, and USD/JPY is at 155.35.
• Gold and silver have been trading relatively calm, with gold at 81.20 and silver at 5022, following recent volatility. The average daily swing for silver is $15, while for gold, it's $360.

Political and Economic Outlook:

• On the political front, tensions are rising as a bridge-opening threat from DJT escalates strife with Canada.
• Overall sentiment seems to be risk-on, with the focus on US Retail Sales and key earnings today. Retail Sales for December are expected to increase by 0.4%, serving as a crucial indicator of consumer confidence.

As always, continue to trade carefully

Tuesday, 10 Feb 2026
United States: Retail Sales (Dec), Employment Cost Index (Q4), Import/Export Prices (Dec)

Norway: Trade Balance (Dec)

Canada: Building Permits (Dec)

Earnings: Coca-Cola (KO) Q4 2025, Ford Motor (F) Q4 2025, AstraZeneca (AZN) Q4 2025, Spotify (SPOT) Q4 2025, Snap (SNAP) Q4 2025

Wednesday, 11 Feb 2026
United States: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan), Treasury Statement (Jan)

China: CPI (Jan), PPI (Jan)

Italy: Industrial Production (Dec)

Earnings: McDonald’s (MCD) Q4 2025, T-Mobile US (TMUS) Q4 2025, Shopify (SHOP) Q4 2025, Cisco Systems (CSCO) Q2 2026, Humana (HUM) Q4 2025

Thursday, 12 Feb 2026
United States: Existing Home Sales (Jan)

United Kingdom: GDP (Q4), Industrial Production (Dec), Trade Balance (Dec)

Switzerland: CPI (Jan)

Earnings: Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2025, Airbnb (ABNB) Q4 2025, Applied Materials (AMAT) Q4 2025, Pinterest (PINS) Q4 2025, other notable mid-caps per full calendar

Friday, 13 Feb 2026

United States: CPI & Core CPI (Jan)

Eurozone: GDP Q4 (2nd estimate), Trade Balance (Dec)

Brazil: Retail or inflation indicator (Jan), depending on official schedule

Earnings: NatWest Group (NWG) Q4 2025, Norsk Hydro ASA (NHY) Q4 2025, Deere & Company (DE) Q4 2025, Arbor Realty (ABR) Q4 2025, other scheduled mid-caps