Morning Brew April 9 2026

Good Morning

The ceasefire is on shaky ground as Israel continues to attack Lebanon, and statements from the US administration and Iran do not appear to be well aligned regarding the status of negotiations.

Things will become clearer over the next few days, with focus on these key questions:

• Will the ceasefire hold?
• Will the Strait of Hormuz be open open, and will shippers be confident enough not only to send their ships out of the Persian Gulf, but also allow empty vessels in to pick up freight?
• Will Iran be allowed to charge ships to pass through the Strait?
• Will talks between the US and Iran take place, and if so, will they make progress?

According to Reuters, Taiwan's state refiner CPC and trader Glencore have chartered tankers to load Middle Eastern crude for Asia, while at least two Chinese vessels are heading to the Strait of Hormuz to exit the Gulf, a day after the ceasefire.

Market activity this morning seems to indicate that the reality check is not going too well.

Beyond the immediate urgent questions, there is a wide array of things to consider. Starting with the mid- to longer-term implications from the war on supply and cost, the political fallout for Donald Trump, the US, and the overall scene in the Middle East. Also, in Asia and Europe, there will likely be a push to decrease dependence on fossil fuels.

The Fed minutes yesterday showed growing concern about inflation in light of supply disruptions, and a corresponding willingness to consider raising rates.

This morning, equities are trading a little lower than yesterday. The US 500 is down 0.1% to 6770, the US 30 is at 47,840, and the GER40 is down 0.3% at 23,930. Gold and silver are little changed from yesterday at 4,720 and 74, respectively. The USD Index is at 98.85, EURUSD at 1.1660, GBPUSD at 1.3390, and USDJPY at 158.80. CHF is at more comfortable levels for the SNB at 0.7920 and 0.9230.

Yesterday, we saw the massive release rally that I don`t need to elaborate on, what is a bit curious is that precisely 1 year ago we hat the first massive TACO trade when Donald trump paused his tariffs and markets recovered strongly, it is almost as if he wants to celebrate the anniversary. Airlines and cruise operators were the top gainers, along with Meta, where a court ruled it was legal for the company to transfer international user data to the US. 

It is 200 and 50 Day Line Day, with many instruments at or near the 200 Day and 50 day lines

The US 500 broke above (and also broke the 50 Day), the USD Index fell to both lines yesterday and found support, EURUSD and GBPUSD are testing, GER40 tested both lines to the upside yesterday and they held. Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Palantir, and Tesla are at key technical levels.

Technical traders will have a field day with these levels, and we may well see sharp moves around them.

Any news from the Middle East, the peace process - or lack thereof, is likely to cause swings. Trade carefully.

Data:

Thu 9 Apr
US PCE, US weekly initial jobless claims.

Fri 10 Apr
China CPI, PPI, German HICP, US CPI, University of Michigan April Consumer Sentiment

Mon 13 Apr
JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock Q1 earnings (Q1 earnings season opens)