Morning Brew April 3 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Q2 off to an interesting start already
Welcome to an interesting start to Q2. While Friday had closed with risk sentiment fully on, surprising oil production cuts worry markets. OPEC members announced daily production cuts, Russia followed. The Biden administration called the move unwise.
Oil prices jumped and equities were weighed down by the decision as higher energy costs equal higher inflation. US yields rise and the probability of a further 25 BPS hike rose to 65%. The USD gains with the USD Index almost 1% higher, EURUSD is trading at 1.0790, Cable 1.2280 and USDJPY 133.50. In Q1,
Oil is now up 4.4% to trade at 79.00 USD per barrel.
Gold and Silver lost, Silver fell to 23.60 from 24.10 and Gold 1953. Gold ended Q1 at the highest quarterly close ever. In Q1, Silver lost 1.37% and Gold gained 7.1%.
US Indexes had gained significantly on Friday after the PCE came lower than expected and general optimism, the Dow added 1.3%, the S&P 500 and the 1.4%, Nasdaq 1.7%. The best sector in q1 was technology, up 22%. Followed by communications, Financials, Energy and Healthcare were the laggers. Tesla could gain 6.2% on Friday and also posted record production numbers over the weekend. In Q1 the stock gained 68%, Nvidia was up a stunning 90%, Amazon 23% and Apple 27%. Bitcoin also added 67% in the first Quarter.
The coming week is thin key data points with the outlier being the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday. It is always interesting when this number is published on Good Friday. Liquidity is low and it always catches a significant number of traders by surprise.
Key stories our trading desk had on the radar were:
1. Nasdaq – Last week, the Nasdaq index officially entered a bull market by extending its rally to 20% from the December 2022 lows and had the best quarter since 2020.
2. Novo Nordisk - WHO consider adding Novo’s obesity drugs to its 'essential' medicines list leading to another rally in the stock.
3. Alibaba - Unveiled a historic overhaul this week announcing the company is splitting into 6 units.
4. Real Estate Companies – Key risk for the markets. Watch this space in the weeks ahead.
RBA Cash rate
US Factory Orders
German Idustrial Orders
German Idustrial Output
Swiss FX reserves
US Jobs data
Non Farm Payrolls