Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew April 3 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Q2 off to an interesting start already

Good Morning,

Welcome to an interesting start to Q2. While Friday had closed with risk sentiment fully on, surprising oil production cuts worry markets. OPEC members announced daily production cuts, Russia followed. The Biden administration called the move unwise.

Oil prices jumped and equities were weighed down by the decision as higher energy costs equal higher inflation. US yields rise and the probability of a further 25 BPS hike rose to 65%. The USD gains with the USD Index almost 1% higher, EURUSD is trading at 1.0790, Cable 1.2280 and USDJPY 133.50. In Q1, 

Oil is now up 4.4% to trade at 79.00 USD per barrel.

Gold and Silver lost, Silver fell to 23.60 from 24.10 and Gold 1953. Gold ended Q1 at the highest quarterly close ever. In Q1, Silver lost 1.37% and Gold gained 7.1%. 

US Indexes had gained significantly on Friday after the PCE came lower than expected and general optimism, the Dow added 1.3%, the S&P 500 and the  1.4%, Nasdaq 1.7%. The best sector in q1 was technology, up 22%. Followed by communications, Financials, Energy and Healthcare were the laggers. Tesla could gain 6.2% on Friday and also posted record production numbers over the weekend. In Q1 the stock gained 68%, Nvidia was up a stunning 90%, Amazon 23% and Apple 27%. Bitcoin also added 67% in the first Quarter. 

The coming week is thin key data points with the outlier being the Nonfarm Payroll on Friday. It is always interesting when this number is published on Good Friday. Liquidity is low and it always catches a significant number of traders by surprise.

Trade safely.

Key stories our trading desk had on the radar were:

1. Nasdaq – Last week,  the Nasdaq index officially entered a bull market by extending its rally to 20% from the December 2022 lows and had the best quarter since 2020.

2. Novo Nordisk - WHO consider adding Novo’s obesity drugs to its 'essential' medicines list leading to another rally in the stock.

3. Alibaba - Unveiled a historic overhaul this week announcing the company is splitting into 6 units.

4. Real Estate Companies – Key risk for the markets. Watch this space in the weeks ahead.


Japan Tankan
International PMI


RBA Cash rate
US Factory Orders


International PMI
German Idustrial Orders

German Idustrial Output
Swiss FX reserves
US Jobs data


 Good Friday
Non Farm Payrolls


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38

Contact Saxo

Select region


All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.